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Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach

  • Mumtaz, Haroon

    ()

    (Bank of England)

A large empirical literature has examined the transmission mechanism of structural shocks in great detail. The possible role played by changes in the volatility of shocks has largely been overlooked in vector autoregression based applications. This paper proposes an extended vector autoregression where the volatility of structural shocks is allowed to be time-varying and to have a direct impact on the endogenous variables included in the model. The proposed model is applied to US data to consider the potential impact of changes in the volatility of monetary policy shocks. The results suggest that while an increase in this volatility has a statistically significant impact on GDP growth and inflation, the relative contribution of these shocks to the forecast error variance of these variables is estimated to be small.

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Paper provided by Bank of England in its series Bank of England working papers with number 437.

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Length: 24 pages
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0437
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  1. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  2. Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "New Evidence on the Puzzles: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 5, Society for Computational Economics.
  3. Pablo Guerron & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, 2010. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 281, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  4. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, 05.
  5. Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, 02.
  6. Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 0746, European Central Bank.
  7. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics.
  8. Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
  9. Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
  10. Siddhartha Chib & Yasuhiro Omori & Manabu Asai, 2007. "Multivariate stochastic volatility," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-488, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  11. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521192828 is not listed on IDEAS
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