Estimating the impact of the volatility of shocks: a structural VAR approach
A large empirical literature has examined the transmission mechanism of structural shocks in great detail. The possible role played by changes in the volatility of shocks has largely been overlooked in vector autoregression based applications. This paper proposes an extended vector autoregression where the volatility of structural shocks is allowed to be time-varying and to have a direct impact on the endogenous variables included in the model. The proposed model is applied to US data to consider the potential impact of changes in the volatility of monetary policy shocks. The results suggest that while an increase in this volatility has a statistically significant impact on GDP growth and inflation, the relative contribution of these shocks to the forecast error variance of these variables is estimated to be small.
|Date of creation:||31 Oct 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/Email:
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Pablo A. Guerrón-Quintana & Juan Rubio-Ramírez & Martín Uribe, 2009.
"Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
14875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez & Martin Uribe, 2011. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2530-61, October.
- Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Pablo Guerron-Quintana & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez & Martin Uribe, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-013, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
- Pablo A. Guerron-Quintana & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesús Fernández-Villaverde, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real E¤ects of Volatility Shocks," 2009 Meeting Papers 237, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Fernández-Villaverde, Jesús & Guerron-Quintana, Pablo A. & Rubio-Ramírez, Juan Francisco & Uribe, Martín, 2009. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7264, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Pablo Guerron & Martin Uribe & Juan Rubio-Ramirez & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, 2010. "Risk Matters: The Real Effects of Volatility Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 281, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2008.
"How Structural Are Structural Parameters?,"
in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 83-137
National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000057, UCLA Department of Economics.
- Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramírez, 2007. "How Structural Are Structural Parameters?," NBER Working Papers 13166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benati, Luca & Mumtaz, Haroon, 2007. "U.S. evolving macroeconomic dynamics: a structural investigation," Working Paper Series 0746, European Central Bank.
- Mumtaz, Haroon & Sunder-Plassmann, Laura, 2010. "Time-varying dynamics of the real exchange rate. A structural VAR analysis," Bank of England working papers 382, Bank of England.
- Almuth Scholl & Harald Uhlig, 2006. "New Evidence on the Puzzles: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rates," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 5, Society for Computational Economics.
- Nicholas Bloom, 2007.
"The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks,"
NBER Working Papers
13385, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Manabu Asai & Michael McAleer & Jun Yu, 2006.
"Multivariate Stochastic Volatility,"
Microeconomics Working Papers
22058, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521192828 is not listed on IDEAS
- Haroon Mumtaz & Paolo Surico, 2009. "The Transmission of International Shocks: A Factor-Augmented VAR Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 71-100, 02.
- Goffe, William L. & Ferrier, Gary D. & Rogers, John, 1994. "Global optimization of statistical functions with simulated annealing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 65-99.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0437. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Publications Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.