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Cyber risk and the U.S. financial system: A pre-mortem analysis

Author

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  • Eisenbach, Thomas M.
  • Kovner, Anna
  • Lee, Michael Junho

Abstract

We model how a cyber attack may be amplified through the U.S. financial system, focusing on the wholesale payments network. We estimate that spillovers of an attack on one of the five most active banks would impair 31% of the network, on average, with some days significantly worse. When other banks respond by liquidity hoarding, forgone payment activity can reach more than 2.5 times daily GDP. A reverse stress test shows attacks on groups of small banks can also impair a significant amount of the network. Interconnectedness through third-party providers and financial market utilities poses additional risks.

Suggested Citation

  • Eisenbach, Thomas M. & Kovner, Anna & Lee, Michael Junho, 2022. "Cyber risk and the U.S. financial system: A pre-mortem analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 802-826.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:145:y:2022:i:3:p:802-826
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.10.007
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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