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The Current Depth-of-Recession and Unemployment-Rate Forecasts

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  • Parker Randall E.

    () (East Carolina University East Carolina University)

  • Rothman Philip

    () (East Carolina University East Carolina University)

Abstract

Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate documented in the business-cycle asymmetry literature. We show that while the CDR effect is significant in-sample, no statistically significant out-of-sample forecast improvement is obtained relative to the linear alternative. Augmenting an AR(2) model by inclusion of the CDR term, however, does not significantly worsen the out-of-sample forecast performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Parker Randall E. & Rothman Philip, 1998. "The Current Depth-of-Recession and Unemployment-Rate Forecasts," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-10, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:2:y:1998:i:4:n:5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
    2. Potter, Simon M, 1995. "A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-125, April-Jun.
    3. Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1997. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence on the Persistence of Aggregate Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 495-509, July.
    4. Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    5. Philip Rothman, 1998. "Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(1), pages 164-168, February.
    6. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthews, Kent & Minford, Patrick & Naraidoo, Ruthira, 2008. "Vicious and virtuous circles -- The political economy of unemployment in interwar UK and USA," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 605-614, September.
    2. Floros, Ch., 2005. "Forecasting the UK Unemployment Rate: Model Comparisons," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 57-72.
    3. Bårdsen Gunnar & Hurn Stanley & McHugh Zöe, 2012. "Asymmetric Unemployment Rate Dynamics in Australia," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-22, January.
    4. Chen, Wei-Shing, 2011. "Use of recurrence plot and recurrence quantification analysis in Taiwan unemployment rate time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(7), pages 1332-1342.
    5. Proietti, Tommaso, 2003. "Forecasting the US unemployment rate," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 451-476, March.
    6. Philip Rothman, 1999. "Time Irreversible Unemployment Rates," Working Papers 9903, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
    7. Gunnar Bårdsen & Stan Hurn & Zoë McHugh, 2002. "A smooth-transition model of the Australian unemployment rate," Working Paper Series 1002, Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, revised 01 Jul 2003.

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