The Current Depth-of-Recession and Unemployment-Rate Forecasts
Building upon Beaudry and Koop's (1993) analysis, we consider a "current depth of the recession" (CDR) variable in modeling the time-series behavior of the postwar quarterly U.S. unemployment rate. The CDR approach is consistent with the state-dependent behavior in the unemployment rate documented in the business-cycle asymmetry literature. We show that while the CDR effect is significant in-sample, no statistically significant out-of-sample forecast improvement is obtained relative to the linear alternative. Augmenting an AR(2) model by inclusion of the CDR term, however, does not significantly worsen the out-of-sample forecast performance.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 2 (1998)
Issue (Month): 4 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.degruyter.com|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.degruyter.com/view/j/snde|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Bruce Mizrach, 1996. "Forecast Comparison in L2," Departmental Working Papers 199524, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Potter, Simon M, 1995.
"A Nonlinear Approach to US GNP,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 109-25, April-Jun.
- Philip Rothman, .
"Forecasting Asymmetric Unemployment Rates,"
9618, East Carolina University, Department of Economics.
- Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
- Bradley, Michael D & Jansen, Dennis W, 1997. "Nonlinear Business Cycle Dynamics: Cross-country Evidence on the Persistence of Aggregate Shocks," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(3), pages 495-509, July.
- Beaudry, Paul & Koop, Gary, 1993. "Do recessions permanently change output?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 149-163, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:2:y:1998:i:4:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Golla)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.