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What drives the global official/policy interest rate?

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  • Ronald A. Ratti
  • Joaquin L. Vespignani

Abstract

We construct a GFAVAR model with newly released global data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas to investigate the drivers of global official/policy interest rate. We find that 66% of movement in global official/policy interest rates is attributed to changes in global monetary aggregates (23%), oil prices (19%), global output (16%) and global prices (8%). Global official/policy interest rates respond significantly to increases in global output, inflation and oil prices. Increases in global policy interest rates are associated with reductions in global prices and global output. The response in official/policy interest rate for the emerging countries is more to global inflation, for the advanced countries (excluding the U.S.) is more to global output, and for the U.S. is to both global output and inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2019. "What drives the global official/policy interest rate?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(47), pages 5185-5190, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:51:y:2019:i:47:p:5185-5190
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1610716
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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olatunji A. Shobande & Oladimeji T. Shodipe & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Global Shocks Alert and Monetary Policy Responses," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 19/066, African Governance and Development Institute..
    2. Probst, Julius, 2019. "Global real interest rate dynamics from the late 19th century to today," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 522-547.
    3. Nagayasu, Jun, 2019. "Financial flows, global interest rates, and political integration," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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