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Persistence in Intertrade Durations

  • Joann Jasiak

    ()

    (York University, Canada)

This paper examines long-term dependence in times between trades on financial markets. The autocorrelation functions of several intertrade duration series show a slow, hyperbolic rate of decay typical for long memory processes. For example, a shock to times between trades of the Alcatel stock on the Paris Stock Exchange (SBF Paris Bourse) may persist in the transactions time for a long period of 1000 or 2000 ticks. With an average duration of 52 seconds between transactions this may amount to sixteen or thirty two hours in calendar time. This paper introduces a fractionally integrated autoregressive conditional duration (FIACD) model for intertrade duration series. It also examines transformed duration processes representing times between consecutive returns to states of null, positive or negative returns. This approach captures the relationship between the duration persistence and return dynamics. The times elapsed between returns to various states feature very similar autocorrelation patterns and do not possess the long memory property. The persistence in durations is also determined by the times spent within specific states of returns. The average visiting time is state dependent, features intraday variation and may be considered as an instantaneous measure of state persistence. The long memory patterns are examined in data on the Alcatel and IBM stocks traded on the SBF Paris Bourse and NYSE.

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File URL: http://dept.econ.yorku.ca/research/workingPapers/working_papers/pers_2.pdf
File Function: Revised version, 1999
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by York University, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1999_8.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Aug 1996
Date of revision: Mar 1999
Handle: RePEc:yca:wpaper:1999_8
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  1. Lee, Sang-Won & Hansen, Bruce E., 1994. "Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 29-52, March.
  2. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1989. "Intra Day And Inter Market Volatility In Foreign Exchange Rates," Papers 8811, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Gourieroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joanna, 1999. "Nonlinear innovations and impulse responses," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9906, CEPREMAP.
  4. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  5. Gourieroux Christian & Monfort Alain & Trognon A, 1981. "Pseudo maximum likelihood methods : theory," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8129, CEPREMAP.
  6. Robert F. Engle & Takatoshi Ito & Wen-Ling Lin, 1988. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-Daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 2609, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Crato, Nuno & Rothman, Philip, 1994. "Fractional integration analysis of long-run behavior for US macroeconomic time series," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 287-291.
  8. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  9. Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1993. "Nonlinear Dynamic Structures," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 871-907, July.
  10. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  11. Gouriéroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joanna & Le Fol, Gaëlle, 1999. "Intra-day market activity," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5478, Paris Dauphine University.
  12. Serge DAROLLES & Christian GOURIÉROUX & Gaëlle LE FOL, 2000. "Intraday Transaction Price Dynamics," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 60, pages 207-238.
  13. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
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