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On the (intradaily) seasonality and dynamics of a financial point process: a semiparametric approach

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  • Veredas, David
  • Rodríguez Poo, Juan M.
  • Espasa, Antoni

Abstract

A component model for the analysis of financial durations is proposed. The components are the long-run dynamics and the seasonality. The later is left unspecified and the former is assumed to fall within the class of certain family of parametric functions. The joint model is estimated by maximizing a (local) quasi-likelihood function, and the resulting nonparametric estimator of the seasonal curve has an explicit form that turns out to be a transformation of the Nadaraya-Watson estimator. The estimators of the parameters of interest are shown to be root-N consistent and asymptotically efficient. Furthermore, the seasonal curve is also estimated consistently. The methodology is applied to the trade duration process of Bankinter, a medium size Spanish bank traded in Bolsa de Madrid. We show that adjusting data by seasonality produces important misspecifications.

Suggested Citation

  • Veredas, David & Rodríguez Poo, Juan M. & Espasa, Antoni, 2001. "On the (intradaily) seasonality and dynamics of a financial point process: a semiparametric approach," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws013321, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws013321
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    Cited by:

    1. Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
    2. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Autoregressive conditional duration modelling of high frequency data," Papers 2111.02300, arXiv.org.
    3. Roman Huptas, 2014. "Bayesian Estimation and Prediction for ACD Models in the Analysis of Trade Durations from the Polish Stock Market," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 6(4), pages 237-273, December.
    4. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2005. "Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 35-68, July.
    5. Hautsch, Nikolaus, 2002. "Modelling Intraday Trading Activity Using Box-Cox-ACD Models," CoFE Discussion Papers 02/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    6. Ben Omrane, Walid & de Bodt, Eric, 2007. "Using self-organizing maps to adjust for intra-day seasonality," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1817-1838, June.
    7. BAUWENS, Luc & GALLI, Fausto & GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "The moments of Log-ACD models," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003011, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. Tomoki Toyabe & Teruo Nakatsuma, 2022. "Stochastic Conditional Duration Model with Intraday Seasonality and Limit Order Book Information," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-25, October.
    9. Xiufeng Yan, 2021. "Multiplicative Component GARCH Model of Intraday Volatility," Papers 2111.02376, arXiv.org.
    10. Francisco Blasques & Vladim'ir Hol'y & Petra Tomanov'a, 2018. "Zero-Inflated Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model for Discrete Trade Durations with Excessive Zeros," Papers 1812.07318, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    11. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Pohlmeier, Winfried, 2001. "Econometric Analysis of Financial Transaction Data: Pitfalls and Opportunities," CoFE Discussion Papers 01/05, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    12. Hujer, Reinhard & Vuletic, Sandra, 2007. "Econometric analysis of financial trade processes by discrete mixture duration models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 635-667, February.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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