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Announcement Effects and Seasonality in the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market

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  • Richard Payne

Abstract

This paper examines two aspects of spot FX volatility. Using intra-daily quotation data on the Deutsche Mark/Dollar we simultaneously estimate the deterministic intra-daily seasonal pattern inherent in volatility and the effects of US macroeconomic announcements. The empirical specification and estimation technique is based on the Stochastic Volatility methodology contained in Harvey, Ruiz and Shephard (1994). Results conform with previous work, in that ¶news¶ effects are strong and persistent, being felt for over one hour after the initial release time. Inclusion of an explicit seasonal is shown to be essential for the accurate estimation of other volatility components. Further estimations allow us to examine which particular pieces of US data move the markets. These result show that the most important statistics are those associated with the Employment and Mercantile Trade reports.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Payne, 1996. "Announcement Effects and Seasonality in the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp238, Financial Markets Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp238
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    File URL: http://www.lse.ac.uk/fmg/workingPapers/discussionPapers/fmgdps/dp238.pdf
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    Cited by:

    1. David Veredas & Juan Rodriguez-Poo & Antoni Espasa, 2001. "On the (Intradaily) Seasonality and Dynamics of a Financial Point Process : A Semiparametric Approach," Working Papers 2001-19, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    3. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2005. "Long-memory and heterogeneous components in high frequency Pacific-Basin exchange rate volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 12(3), pages 199-226, September.
    4. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
    5. Robinson, Peter M. & Henry, Marc, 2003. "Higher-order kernel semiparametric M-estimation of long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-27, May.
    6. Martin D. D. Evans(Georgetown University and NBER), 2005. "What are the Origins of Foreign Exchange Movements?," Working Papers gueconwpa~05-05-06, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
    7. Evans, Kevin & Speight, Alan, 2010. "International macroeconomic announcements and intraday euro exchange rate volatility," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 552-568, December.
    8. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    9. Stefanescu, Răzvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2020. "Efectul Turn-of-the-Year pe piaţa valutară din România [The Turn-of-the-Year Effect in the Romanian foreign exchange market]," MPRA Paper 99365, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2020.
    10. Melvin, Michael & Yin, Xixi, 2000. "Public Information Arrival, Exchange Rate Volatility, and Quote Frequency," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(465), pages 644-661, July.
    11. Martin D. D. Evans, 2017. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 5, pages 189-245, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Morana, Claudio & Beltratti, Andrea, 2000. "Central bank interventions and exchange rates: an analysis with high frequency data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 10(3-4), pages 349-362, December.
    13. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    14. David McMillan & Alan Speight, 2004. "Intra-day periodicity, temporal aggregation and time-to-maturity in FTSE-100 index futures volatility," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 253-263.
    15. Almeida, Alvaro & Goodhart, Charles & Payne, Richard, 1998. "The Effects of Macroeconomic News on High Frequency Exchange Rate Behavior," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 383-408, September.
    16. Beltratti, Andrea & Morana, Claudio, 1999. "Computing value at risk with high frequency data," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(5), pages 431-455, December.
    17. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    18. Neil Beattie & Jean-François Fillion, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Staff Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada.
    19. Ismet GOCER & Mehmet MERCAN, 2016. "Which country after Greece? Sustainability of budget deficits in selected EU countries: A panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under cross-section dependence," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(3(608), A), pages 205-220, Autumn.
    20. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev, 1996. "DM-Dollar Volatility: Intraday Activity Patterns, Macroeconomic Announcements, and Longer Run Dependencies," NBER Working Papers 5783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Kevin Evans & Alan Speight, 2011. "Intraday euro exchange rates and international macroeconomic announcements," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 83-110.
    22. Han, Young Wook, 2008. "Intraday effects of macroeconomic shocks on the US Dollar-Euro exchange rates," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 585-600, December.
    23. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.

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