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Whither now?

Author

Listed:
  • C.A.E. GOODHART

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

The author is one of the UK's eminent monetary economists and a member of the UK's Monetary Policy Committee. After summarising his early academic career, he discusses his time at the Bank of England and the formation of UK monetary policy. This leads on to a survey of his later experiences in returning to academia and his analysis of foreign exchange markets and central bank autonomy. The movements of foreign exchange markets have been thought to react upon the arrival of news concerning changes in monetary policy. However, close examination of the US forex market does not show any significant fluctuations in reaction to particular news disclosures. Economic news with pre-announced release dates have been proven to produce jumps in volatility within minutes of disclosure. The use of high frequency data at given intervals has been shown to produce price spikes and subsidence after a few minutes.

Suggested Citation

  • C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    • Handle: RePEc:psl:bnlqrr:1997:41
    as

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    File URL: http://ojs.uniroma1.it/index.php/PSLQuarterlyReview/article/view/10583/10467
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Charles A. E. Goodhart, 1995. "The Central Bank and the Financial System," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262071673, December.
    5. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima Lawan, 1992. "Does the Forward Premium/Discount Help to Predict the Future Change in the Exchange Rate?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(2), pages 129-140, May.
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    9. Goodhart, Charles A E & Taylor, Mark P, 1992. "Why Don't Individuals Speculate in the Forward Foreign Exchange Market?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 39(1), pages 1-13, February.
    10. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Hesse, Thomas, 1993. "Central Bank Forex internvention assessed in continous time," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 368-389, August.
    11. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Payne, Richard G., 1996. "Microstructural dynamics in a foreign exchange electronic broking system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 829-852, December.
    12. C. A. E. Goodhart, 1995. "Money Supply Control: Base or Interest Rates? (1995)," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: The Central Bank and the Financial System, chapter 13, pages 249-262, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & McMahon, Patrick C. & Ngama, Yerima L., 1993. "Testing for unit roots with very high frequency spot exchange rate data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 423-438.
    14. Goodhart, Charles A E & McMahon, Patrick C & Ngama, Yerima L, 1997. "Why Does the Spot-Forward Discount Fail to Predict Changes in Future Spot Rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 121-129, April.
    15. Stephen M. Goldfeld, 1973. "The Demand for Money Revisited," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 4(3), pages 577-646.
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    17. Goodhart, Charles A. E. & O'Hara, Maureen, 1997. "High frequency data in financial markets: Issues and applications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 73-114, June.
    18. Richard Payne, 1996. "Announcement Effects and Seasonality in the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp238, Financial Markets Group.
    19. Riccardo Curcio & Charles Goodhart, 1991. "The Clustering of Bid/Ask Prices and the Spread in the Foreign Exchange Market," FMG Discussion Papers dp110, Financial Markets Group.
    20. Goodhart, C A E & Giugale, M, 1993. "From Hour to Hour in the Foreign Exchange Market," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 61(1), pages 1-34, March.
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    22. Walsh, Carl E, 1995. "Optimal Contracts for Central Bankers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(1), pages 150-167, March.
    23. Curcio, Riccardo, et al, 1997. "Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 267-280, October.
    24. Goodhart, C. A. E. & Figliuoli, L., 1991. "Every minute counts in financial markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 23-52, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward Nelson, 2000. "UK monetary policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor rules," Bank of England working papers 120, Bank of England.
    2. Nelson, Edward & Nikolov, Kalin, 2004. "Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(3), pages 293-318, June.
    3. Michael D. Bordo & Anna J. Schwartz, 2003. "Charles Goodhart's contributions to the history of monetary institutions," Chapters, in: Paul Mizen (ed.), Monetary History, Exchange Rates and Financial Markets, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Nelson, Edward, 2001. "What Does the UK's Monetary Policy and Inflation Experience Tell Us About the Transmission Mechanism?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3047, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Fratianni, Michele & von Hagen, Jurgen, 2001. "The Konstanz Seminar on monetary theory and policy at 30," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 641-664, September.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market fluctuations; Economic news; Volatility; Foreign exchange markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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