IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijf/ijfiec/v2y1997i4p267-80.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market

Author

Listed:
  • Curcio, Riccardo, et al

Abstract

Several recent studies have demonstrated the profitability of technical analysis by simulating certain trading rules over a very long period of daily foreign exchange rates. In this paper, we use filter rules identified and supplied by technical analysts on the intra-daily foreign exchange market. We provide evidence that, although some profits could be made by following these rules in periods of trends, this was not the case on average. Our results are further strengthened when we incorporate transaction costs. We also simulate some of the rules used in previous studies and show that they would not be profitable when applied to our intra-daily data set. Copyright @ 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suggested Citation

  • Curcio, Riccardo, et al, 1997. "Do Technical Trading Rules Generate Profits? Conclusions from the Intra-day Foreign Exchange Market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(4), pages 267-280, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:4:p:267-80
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jtoc?ID=15416
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Neely, C. J. & Weller, P. A., 2003. "Intraday technical trading in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 223-237, April.
    2. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
    3. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, February.
    4. Schulmeister, Stephan, 2006. "The interaction between technical currency trading and exchange rate fluctuations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 212-233, September.
    5. Petr Zeman, 2014. "Technical Trading and Testing of Intra-day Market Efficiency in the Foreign Exchange Market," Acta Universitatis Bohemiae Meridionales, University of South Bohemia in Ceske Budejovice, vol. 17(1), pages 3-13.
    6. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.
    7. Kirman, Alan & Ricciotti, Romain Fabio & Topol, Richard L On, 2007. "Bubbles In Foreign Exchange Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(S1), pages 102-123, November.
    8. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Carol L. Osler, 2000. "Support for resistance: technical analysis and intraday exchange rates," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jul, pages 53-68.
    10. Y. Shi & A. N. Gorban & T. Y. Yang, 2013. "Is it possible to predict long-term success with k-NN? Case Study of four market indices (FTSE100, DAX, HANGSENG, NASDAQ)," Papers 1307.8308, arXiv.org.
    11. Bertrand Maillet & Thierry Michel, 2005. "Technical analysis profitability when exchange rates are pegged: A note," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 463-470.
    12. Danielsson, J. & Payne, R., 2002. "Real trading patterns and prices in spot foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 203-222, April.
    13. Fiess, Norbert M & MacDonald, Ronald, 2002. "Towards the fundamentals of technical analysis: analysing the information content of High, Low and Close prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 353-374, May.
    14. Gehrig, Thomas & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2003. "Technical Analysis in Foreign Exchange - The Workhorse Gains Further Ground," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-278, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    15. Nguyen, James, 2004. "The Efficient Market Hypothesis: Is It Applicable to the Foreign Exchange Market?," Economics Working Papers wp04-20, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    16. Stephan Schulmeister, 2007. "Performance of Technical Trading Systems in the Yen/Dollar Market," WIFO Working Papers 291, WIFO.
    17. C.A.E. Goodhart, 1997. "Whither now?," Banca Nazionale del Lavoro Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 50(203), pages 385-430.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:2:y:1997:i:4:p:267-80. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/1076-9307/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.