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An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention

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  • Neil, Beattie
  • Fillion, Jean-François

Abstract

This paper assesses the effectiveness of Canada's official foreign exchange intervention in moderating intraday volatility of the Can$/US$ exchange rate, using a 2-1/2-year sample of 10-minute exchange rate data. The use of high frequency data (higher than daily frequency) should help in assessing the impact of intervention since the foreign exchange market is efficient and reacts rapidly to new information. The estimated equations explain volatility in terms of four major factors: intraday seasonal pattern; daily volatility persistence; macroeconomic news announcements; and the impact of central bank intervention. Rule-based (or expected) intervention apparently had no direct impact on the reduction of foreign exchange volatility, although the existence of a non-intervention band seemed to provide a small stabilizing influence. This result is interpreted to mean that the stabilizing effect of expected intervention came into play as the Canadian dollar approached the upper or lower limits of the band. When the dollar exceeded the band, actual intervention did not have any direct impact because it was expected. Moreover, the results show that discretionary (or unexpected) intervention might have been effective in stabilizing the Canadian dollar, although the impact of an intervention sequence diminished as it increased beyond a few days.

Suggested Citation

  • Neil, Beattie & Fillion, Jean-François, 1999. "An Intraday Analysis of the Effectiveness of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Staff Working Papers 99-4, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:99-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Neely, Christopher J., 2002. "The temporal pattern of trading rule returns and exchange rate intervention: intervention does not generate technical trading profits," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 211-232, October.
    2. repec:ijc:ijcjou:y:2018:q:0:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Rogers, J. M. & Siklos, P. L., 2003. "Foreign exchange market intervention in two small open economies: the Canadian and Australian experience," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 393-416, June.
    4. Chris D'Souza, 2002. "A Market Microstructure Analysis of Foreign Exchange Intervention in Canada," Staff Working Papers 02-16, Bank of Canada.
    5. Christopher J. Neely, 2005. "An analysis of recent studies of the effect of foreign exchange intervention," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 685-718.
    6. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E., 2006. "When do central bank interventions influence intra-daily and longer-term exchange rate movements?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(7), pages 1051-1071, November.
    7. Richard T. Baillie & Owen F. Humpage & William P. Osterberg, 1999. "Intervention as information: a survey," Working Paper 9918, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    8. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2007. "The influence of actual and unrequited interventions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 171-200.
    9. Siklos, Pierre L., 2000. "Monetary policy transparency, public commentary, and market perceptions about monetary policy in Canada," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Michael R. King & Rasmus Fatum, 2005. "The Effectiveness of Official Foreign Exchange Intervention in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Canadian Dollar," Staff Working Papers 05-21, Bank of Canada.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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