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The stochastic conditional duration model: a latent factor model for the analysis of financial durations

  • Luc Bauwens
  • David Veredas

A new model for the analysis of durations, the stochastic conditional duration (SCD) model, is introduced. This model is based of the assumption that the durations are generated by a latent stochastic factor that follows a first order autoregressive process. The latent factor is pertubed multiplicatively by an innovation distributed as aWeibull or gamma variable. The model can capture a wide range of shapes of hazard functions. The estimation of the parameters is performed by quasi-maximum likelihood, after transforming the original nonlinear model into a space state representation and using the Kalman filter. The model is applied to stock market price-durations, looking at the relation between price durations, volume, spread and trading intensity.

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Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series ULB Institutional Repository with number 2013/136234.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in: Journal of econometrics (2004) v.119 n° 2,p.381-412
Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/136234
Contact details of provider: Postal: CP135, 50, avenue F.D. Roosevelt, 1050 Bruxelles
Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be

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  1. Clark, Peter K, 1973. "A Subordinated Stochastic Process Model with Finite Variance for Speculative Prices," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(1), pages 135-55, January.
  2. Ghysels Eric & Jasiak Joanna, 1998. "GARCH for Irregularly Spaced Financial Data: The ACD-GARCH Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(4), pages 1-19, January.
  3. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot, 2003. "Asymmetric ACD models: Introducing price information in ACD models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 709-731, November.
  4. Joachim Grammig & Kai-Oliver Maurer, 2000. "Non-monotonic hazard functions and the autoregressive conditional duration model," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(1), pages 16-38.
  5. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 2002. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 369-400, February.
  6. Eric Ghysels & Joanna Jasiak, 1997. "GARCH for Irregularly Spaced Data: The ACD-GARCH Model," CIRANO Working Papers 97s-06, CIRANO.
  7. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Shephard, Neil, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(2), pages 247-64, April.
  8. Eric Ghysels & Christian Gourieroux & Joanna Jasiak, 1997. "Stochastic Volatility Duration Models," Working Papers 97-46, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique.
  9. Jacquier, Eric & Polson, Nicholas G & Rossi, Peter E, 2002. "Bayesian Analysis of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 69-87, January.
  10. Gouriéroux, Christian & Jasiak, Joanna & Le Fol, Gaëlle, 1999. "Intra-day market activity," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/5478, Paris Dauphine University.
  11. Ruiz, Esther, 1994. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation of stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 289-306, July.
  12. J. Grammig & K. Maurer, 1999. "Non-Monotonic Hazard Functions and the Autoregressive Conditional Duration Model," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,50, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  13. Robert F. Engle, 1996. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 5816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Joann Jasiak, 1996. "Persistence in Intertrade Durations," Working Papers 1999_8, York University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 1999.
  15. repec:fth:inseep:9633 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. Luc BAUWENS & Pierre GIOT, 2000. "The Logarithmic ACD Model: An Application to the Bid-Ask Quote Process of Three NYSE Stocks," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ENSAE, issue 60, pages 117-149.
  17. Grammig, Joachim & Wellner, Marc, 1999. "Modeling the interdependence of volatility and inter-transaction duration processes," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1999,21, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  18. Jeffrey R. Russell & Robert F. Engle, 1998. "Econometric Analysis of Discrete-valued Irregularly-spaced Financial Transactions Data Using a New Autoregressive Conditional Multinomial Model," CRSP working papers 470, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  19. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1992. " Time and the Process of Security Price Adjustment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 576-605, June.
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