IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finana/v76y2021ics1057521921001137.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dynamic volatility spillovers and investment strategies between the Chinese stock market and commodity markets

Author

Listed:
  • Wen, Fenghua
  • Cao, Jiahui
  • Liu, Zhen
  • Wang, Xiong

Abstract

Building on the increased interest in the volatility spillover effects between Chinese stock market and commodity markets, this paper investigates the dynamic volatility spillovers of Chinese stock market and Chinese commodity markets based on the volatility spillover index under the framework of TVP-VAR. The result shows that there is a highly dependent relationship between the stock market and commodity markets. On average, the Chinese stock market is the net recipient of spillover, non-ferrous metals and chemical industry have a very obvious spillover impact on the stock market. The degree of total volatility spillover is different in different periods. After major crisis events, the volatility correlation between markets increases. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the spillover effect of the stock market on the commodity market has been significantly enhanced. Then optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios are calculated for portfolio diversification and risk management. The result shows that the ability of most commodities to hedge against risks is significantly reduced when the crisis occurs; NMFI (precious metals) and CRFI (grain) still have good hedging ability after the crisis, but the effectiveness of hedging risk is relatively low. Besides, the combination of CRFI and SHCI (the Shanghai composite index) is the most effective for risk reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Wen, Fenghua & Cao, Jiahui & Liu, Zhen & Wang, Xiong, 2021. "Dynamic volatility spillovers and investment strategies between the Chinese stock market and commodity markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:76:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001137
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1057521921001137
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101772?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Du, Ya-Juan & Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong, 2021. "Modeling return and volatility spillover networks of global new energy companies," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    2. Chen, Xian & Li, Yang & Xiao, Jihong & Wen, Fenghua, 2020. "Oil shocks, competition, and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Cheung, C. Sherman & Miu, Peter, 2010. "Diversification benefits of commodity futures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(5), pages 451-474, December.
    4. Abhay Abhyankar, Bing Xu, and Jiayue Wang, 2013. "Oil Price Shocks and the Stock Market: Evidence from Japan," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    5. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14980 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Mensi, Walid & Beljid, Makram & Boubaker, Adel & Managi, Shunsuke, 2013. "Correlations and volatility spillovers across commodity and stock markets: Linking energies, food, and gold," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 15-22.
    7. Ma, Yan-Ran & Ji, Qiang & Wu, Fei & Pan, Jiaofeng, 2021. "Financialization, idiosyncratic information and commodity co-movements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    8. Gamba-Santamaria, Santiago & Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose Eduardo & Hurtado-Guarin, Jorge Luis & Melo-Velandia, Luis Fernando, 2017. "Stock market volatility spillovers: Evidence for Latin America," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 207-216.
    9. Fenghua Wen & Kaiyan Weng & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2020. "Measuring the contribution of Chinese financial institutions to systemic risk: an extended asymmetric CoVaR approach," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 22(4), pages 310-337, December.
    10. Creti, Anna & Joëts, Marc & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On the links between stock and commodity markets' volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 16-28.
    11. Zhifang He & Fangzhao Zhou & Xiaohua Xia & Fenghua Wen & Yiyuan Huang, 2019. "Interaction between Oil Price and Investor Sentiment: Nonlinear Causality, Time- Varying Influence, and Asymmetric Effect," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(12), pages 2756-2773, September.
    12. Ederington, Louis H, 1979. "The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 34(1), pages 157-170, March.
    13. Choi, Kyongwook & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2010. "Volatility behavior of oil, industrial commodity and stock markets in a regime-switching environment," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(8), pages 4388-4399, August.
    14. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    15. Zhengke Ye, Chunyan Hu, Linjie He, Guangda Ouyang, and Fenghua Wen, 2020. "The Dynamic Time-frequency Relationship between International Oil Prices and Investor Sentiment in China: A Wavelet Coherence Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5), pages 251-270.
    16. Wen, Fenghua & Zhao, Lili & He, Shaoyi & Yang, Guozheng, 2020. "Asymmetric relationship between carbon emission trading market and stock market: Evidences from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    17. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
    18. Li, Xiang & Su, Dan, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect corporate debt maturity?," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2020, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    19. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    20. Fenghua Wen & Yujie Yuan & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2019. "Cross-shareholding networks and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China," Papers 1903.01655, arXiv.org.
    21. Silvennoinen, Annastiina & Thorp, Susan, 2013. "Financialization, crisis and commodity correlation dynamics," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 42-65.
    22. Awartani, Basel & Aktham, Maghyereh & Cherif, Guermat, 2016. "The connectedness between crude oil and financial markets: Evidence from implied volatility indices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 56-69.
    23. Wen, Fenghua & Xu, Longhao & Ouyang, Guangda & Kou, Gang, 2019. "Retail investor attention and stock price crash risk: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    24. Yang, Baochen & Pu, Yingjian & Su, Yunpeng, 2020. "The financialization of Chinese commodity markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    25. Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2020. "How does economic policy uncertainty affect the bitcoin market?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    26. Jiang, Yonghong & Jiang, Cheng & Nie, He & Mo, Bin, 2019. "The time-varying linkages between global oil market and China's commodity sectors: Evidence from DCC-GJR-GARCH analyses," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 577-586.
    27. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Cunado, Juncal & Filis, George & Gabauer, David & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2018. "Oil volatility, oil and gas firms and portfolio diversification," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 499-515.
    28. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    29. Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Nan & Gong, Xu, 2020. "China's carbon emissions trading and stock returns," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    30. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Gamboa-Arbelaez, Juliana, 2020. "Dynamic relations between oil and stock market returns: A multi-country study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    31. Zhao, Lili & Wen, Fenghua & Wang, Xiong, 2020. "Interaction among China carbon emission trading markets: Nonlinear Granger causality and time-varying effect," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    32. Yip, Pick Schen & Brooks, Robert & Do, Hung Xuan & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2020. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between oil and agricultural products," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    33. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    34. Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Yang, Li, 2013. "Oil price shocks and stock market activities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1220-1239.
    35. Daskalaki, Charoula & Skiadopoulos, George, 2011. "Should investors include commodities in their portfolios after all? New evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2606-2626, October.
    36. Fenghua Wen & Longhao Xu & Bin Chen & Xiaohua Xia & Jinyi Li, 2020. "Heterogeneous Institutional Investors, Short Selling and Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(12), pages 2812-2825, September.
    37. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    38. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    39. Hu, Min & Zhang, Dayong & Ji, Qiang & Wei, Lijian, 2020. "Macro factors and the realized volatility of commodities: A dynamic network analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    40. Kroner, Kenneth F & Ng, Victor K, 1998. "Modeling Asymmetric Comovements of Asset Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 817-844.
    41. Geng, Jiang-Bo & Chen, Fu-Rui & Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue, 2021. "Network connectedness between natural gas markets, uncertainty and stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    42. Chen, Peng, 2015. "Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 284-294.
    43. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhou, Huiting & Wen, Fenghua & He, Shaoyi, 2020. "Efficient predictability of stock return volatility: The role of stock market implied volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    44. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-561 is not listed on IDEAS
    45. Zhang, Dayong, 2017. "Oil shocks and stock markets revisited: Measuring connectedness from a global perspective," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 323-333.
    46. Ji, Qiang & Zhang, Dayong & Zhao, Yuqian, 2020. "Searching for safe-haven assets during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    47. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2014. "Dependence of stock and commodity futures markets in China: Implications for portfolio investment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 183-200.
    48. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Bouri, Elie, 2016. "The directional volatility connectedness between crude oil and equity markets: New evidence from implied volatility indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 78-93.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Evrim Mandacı, Pınar & Cagli, Efe Çaglar & Taşkın, Dilvin, 2020. "Dynamic connectedness and portfolio strategies: Energy and metal markets," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    2. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gabauer, David & Umar, Zaghum, 2021. "Crude Oil futures contracts and commodity markets: New evidence from a TVP-VAR extended joint connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2021. "Volatility spillovers during market supply shocks: The case of negative oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang, 2022. "Time-varying spillover effects and investment strategies between WTI crude oil, natural gas and Chinese stock markets related to belt and road initiative," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    5. Ghaemi Asl, Mahdi & Adekoya, Oluwasegun Babatunde & Rashidi, Muhammad Mahdi & Ghasemi Doudkanlou, Mohammad & Dolatabadi, Ali, 2022. "Forecast of Bayesian-based dynamic connectedness between oil market and Islamic stock indices of Islamic oil-exporting countries: Application of the cascade-forward backpropagation network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Asymmetric spillover and network connectedness between crude oil, gold, and Chinese sector stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    7. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    8. Yonghong Jiang & Gengyu Tian & Bin Mo, 2020. "Spillover and quantile linkage between oil price shocks and stock returns: new evidence from G7 countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 6(1), pages 1-26, December.
    9. Liu, Bing-Yue & Fan, Ying & Ji, Qiang & Hussain, Nazim, 2022. "High-dimensional CoVaR network connectedness for measuring conditional financial contagion and risk spillovers from oil markets to the G20 stock system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    10. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhu, Haoyang & Zhang, Xinhua, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects and portfolio strategies between crude oil, gold and Chinese stock markets related to new energy vehicle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Benlagha, Noureddine, 2016. "A time-varying copula approach for modelling dependency: New evidence from commodity and stock markets," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 37, pages 168-189.
    12. Mensi, Walid & Al Rababa'a, Abdel Razzaq & Alomari, Mohammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Dynamic frequency volatility spillovers and connectedness between strategic commodity and stock markets: US-based sectoral analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    13. Zhang, Hua & Chen, Jinyu & Shao, Liuguo, 2021. "Dynamic spillovers between energy and stock markets and their implications in the context of COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    14. Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Nasreen, Samia & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2020. "Time-varying co-movements between energy market and global financial markets: Implication for portfolio diversification and hedging strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    15. Zhu, Huiming & Chen, Weiyan & Hau, Liya & Chen, Qitong, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness of crude oil, economic policy uncertainty and Chinese commodity markets: Evidence from rolling window analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    16. Liu, Pan & Power, Gabriel J. & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2021. "Fair-weather Friends? Sector-specific volatility connectedness and transmission," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 712-736.
    17. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Fijorek, Kamil & Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "What drives food price volatility? Evidence based on a generalized VAR approach applied to the food, financial and energy markets," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 13, pages 1-32.
    18. Hachicha, Néjib & Ben Amar, Amine & Ben Slimane, Ikrame & Bellalah, Makram & Prigent, Jean-Luc, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness and optimal hedging strategy among commodities and financial indices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Farid, Saqib & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Paltrinieri, Andrea & Nepal, Rabindra, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the quantile connectedness between energy, metals and agriculture commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    20. Tian, Meiyu & Li, Wanyang & Wen, Fenghua, 2021. "The dynamic impact of oil price shocks on the stock market and the USD/RMB exchange rate: Evidence from implied volatility indices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:76:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001137. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620166 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.