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Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle



Establishment entry and exit is strongly correlated with output and unemployment. This paper examines how these linkages affect business cycle dynamics through the lens of a search and matching model augmented to include multi-worker establishments that endogenously enter and exit. Analytical results show cyclical entry and exit cause reallocation of inputs that amplifies and skews business cycle dynamics. When the model is calibrated to the data, it generates realistic asymmetry in output and unemployment, data-consistent counter-cyclical endogenous uncertainty and a 55% higher welfare cost than the model without entry and exit.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Bernstein & Alexander W. Richter & Nathaniel A. Throckmorton, 2020. "Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and the Business Cycle," Working Papers 2018, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 12 Jan 2021.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:88256
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2018r1
    Note: Previous version of this paper circulated under the title "Entry and Exit, Unemployment, and Macroeconomic Tail Risk."

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Shao, Enchuan & Silos, Pedro, 2013. "Entry costs and labor market dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 243-255.
    2. Stéphane Dupraz & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2019. "A Plucking Model of Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 26351, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Faria-e-Castro, Miguel, 2021. "Fiscal policy during a pandemic," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
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    More about this item


    Unemployment; Firm Dynamics; Nonlinear; Skewness; Tail Risk; Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • L11 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Production, Pricing, and Market Structure; Size Distribution of Firms

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