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Sudden stop regimes and output: a Markov switching analysis

  • Andreas Bachmann
  • Stefan Leist

Sudden stops in capital inflows were a main characteristic of the emerging market crisis during the 1990’s. Concerns about them have recurred in the light of recently increased global stability risk and the quantitative easing that led to substantial capital inflows in emerging economies. We add to the empirical literature that relies on a univariate approach by using a multivariate framework to assess the effect of sudden stops on economic growth and by the identification of sudden stop shocks using a Markov switching VAR and sign restrictions. The Markov switching VAR approach dates sudden stop periods comparable to the existing literature. It reveals a significant negative influence of the regime switch on economic growth that is robust across different estimation methods. Moreover, the Markov switching VAR also indicates that the reaction of macroeconomic variables to the identified shock based on sign restrictions is regime dependent.

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Paper provided by Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft in its series Diskussionsschriften with number dp1307.

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Date of creation: Nov 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ube:dpvwib:dp1307
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  1. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  2. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2008. "Sudden Stops, Sectoral Reallocations, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 14395, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 2004. "Financial Openness, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals," NBER Working Papers 10277, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Renee Fry & Adrian Pagan, 2010. "Sign Restrictions in Structural Vector Autoregressions: A Critical Review," CAMA Working Papers 2010-22, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Sudden Stops, Financial Crises, and Leverage," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 1941-66, December.
  9. Agosin, Manuel R. & Huaita, Franklin, 2012. "Overreaction in capital flows to emerging markets: Booms and sudden stops," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1140-1155.
  10. Jaimovich, Nir & Rebelo, Sérgio, 2007. "News and Business Cycles in Open Economies," CEPR Discussion Papers 6520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  12. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
  13. Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 381-387, May.
  14. Ehrmann, Michael & Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2003. "Regime-dependent impulse response functions in a Markov-switching vector autoregression model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 295-299, March.
  15. Bordo, Michael D. & Cavallo, Alberto F. & Meissner, Christopher M., 2010. "Sudden stops: Determinants and output effects in the first era of globalization, 1880-1913," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-241, March.
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