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Modelling Economic Fluctuations In Subsaharan Africa:A Vector Autoregressive Approach



A controversial result of some current research on the real business cycles is the claim that a common stochastic trend(the cumulative effect of permanent shocks to productivity)underlies the bulk of economic fluctuations. If confirmed, this will imply that many other forces have been relatively unimportant over historical business cycles(including the monetary and fiscal policy shocks in traditional macroeconomic analysis). This paper therefore proposes to use a longrun restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models(identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trends in output, consumption and investment) to provide new evidence on this question(using subsaharan africa as a case study).

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0406008.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0406008
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  1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1996. "Cointegration and speed of convergence to equilibrium," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1-2), pages 117-143.
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  8. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-57, May.
  9. Dr. Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2005. "Rational Expectations And Monetary Theory: An Investigative Paper[1960 - 1989]," Macroeconomics 0501001, EconWPA.
  10. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1991. "Stochastic trends and economic fluctuations," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 91-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  11. Dr.Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2004. "Money And Output Interraction In Nigeria," Macroeconomics 0405012, EconWPA.
  12. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  13. Godwin Nwaobi, 2002. "A vector error correction and nonnested modeling of money demand function in Nigeria," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(4), pages 1-8.
  14. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
  15. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  16. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  17. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  18. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
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