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Modelling Economic Fluctuations In Subsaharan Africa:A Vector Autoregressive Approach

  • DR. GODWIN CHUKWUDUM NWAOBI

    (QUANTITATIVE ECONOMIC RESEARCH BUREAU, NIGERIA)

A controversial result of some current research on the real business cycles is the claim that a common stochastic trend(the cumulative effect of permanent shocks to productivity)underlies the bulk of economic fluctuations. If confirmed, this will imply that many other forces have been relatively unimportant over historical business cycles(including the monetary and fiscal policy shocks in traditional macroeconomic analysis). This paper therefore proposes to use a longrun restriction implied by a large class of real business cycle models(identifying permanent productivity shocks as shocks to the common stochastic trends in output, consumption and investment) to provide new evidence on this question(using subsaharan africa as a case study).

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File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0406/0406008.pdf
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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0406008.

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Length: 17 pages
Date of creation: 10 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:0406008
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 17. THIS IS A PROPOSED RESEARCH FOR PROFESSIONAL COMMENTS
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  1. Robert G. King & Charles I. Plosser & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1987. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 2229, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M, 1995. "Output Dynamics in Real-Business-Cycle Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 492-511, June.
  3. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-57, May.
  4. Godwin Nwaobi, 2001. "A Vector Error Correction And Nonnested Modelling Of Money Demand Function In Nigeria," Econometrics 0111004, EconWPA.
  5. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  6. Blanchard, Olivier Jean, 1989. "A Traditional Interpretation of Macroeconomic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1146-64, December.
  7. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  8. Dr. Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2005. "Rational Expectations And Monetary Theory: An Investigative Paper[1960 - 1989]," Macroeconomics 0501001, EconWPA.
  9. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1993. "Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9311, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Boswijk, H Peter & Franses, Philip Hans, 1995. "Periodic Cointegration: Representation and Inference," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 436-54, August.
  11. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  12. Dr.Godwin Chukwudum Nwaobi, 2004. "Money And Output Interraction In Nigeria," Macroeconomics 0405012, EconWPA.
  13. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  14. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  15. N. Gregory Mankiw, 1990. "A Quick Refresher Course in Macroeconomics," NBER Working Papers 3256, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  18. Wickens, Michael R., 1996. "Interpreting cointegrating vectors and common stochastic trends," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 255-271, October.
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