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Estimating inflation compensation for Turkey using yield curves

  • Duran, Murat
  • Gülşen, Eda

Inflation compensation derived from nominal and real bond yields contains market based, real time information regarding the inflation expectations and the pricing of inflation risks. In this study, we calculate inflation compensation for Turkey by using nominal and real yield curves. The findings of event study analysis on inflation compensation indicate that changes in the term structure of inflation compensation contain information regarding the credibility of monetary authority. Moreover, we find that, at daily frequency, liquidity conditions have no significant effect on inflation compensation and hence the effects of events such as monetary policy decisions and inflation surprises on inflation compensation can be attributed mainly to changes in inflation expectations and pricing of inflation uncertainty.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 32 (2013)
Issue (Month): C ()
Pages: 592-601

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:32:y:2013:i:c:p:592-601
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Stefania D'Amico & Don H. Kim & Min Wei, 2010. "Tips from TIPS: the informational content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis & Justin Wolfers, 2003. "Disagreement about Inflation Expectations," NBER Working Papers 9796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ozge Akinci & Burcu Gurcihan & Refet Gurkaynak & Ozgur Ozel, 2006. "Devlet Ic Borclanma Senetleri Icin Getiri Egrisi Tahmini," Working Papers 0608, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Pu Shen, 2006. "Liquidity risk premia and breakeven inflation rates," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q II, pages 29-54.
  5. Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Potter, Simon M., 2010. "Modeling the dynamics of inflation compensation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 157-167, January.
  6. Bank for International Settlements, 2005. "Zero-coupon yield curves: technical documentation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 25, March.
  7. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Brian Sack & Eric Swanson, 2005. "The Sensitivity of Long-Term Interest Rates to Economic News: Evidence and Implications for Macroeconomic Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 425-436, March.
  8. Christensen, Ian & Frédéric Dion & Christopher Reid, 2004. "Real Return Bonds, Inflation Expectations, and the Break-Even Inflation Rate," Working Papers 04-43, Bank of Canada.
  9. Rose Cunningham & Brigitte Desroches & Eric Santor, 2010. "Inflation Expectations and the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Review of Recent Evidence and Experience," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2010(Spring), pages 13-25.
  10. Refet S. G�rkaynak & Brian Sack & Jonathan H. Wright, 2010. "The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 70-92, January.
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