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A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1

  • Jens Boysen-Hogrefe

    ()

    (Kiel Institute for the World Economy)

Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.

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File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2012/Volume32/EB-12-V32-I2-P123.pdf
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Article provided by AccessEcon in its journal Economics Bulletin.

Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 1291-1301

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Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-11-00730
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  1. Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
  2. Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
  3. Ivan Paya & Agustín Duarte & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2004. "Predicting Real Growth And The Probability Of Recession In The Euro Area Using The Yield Spread," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-31, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  4. Seitz, Franz & Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 0254, European Central Bank.
  5. Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, interest rate spreads, and economic activity," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  6. Herb Taylor, 1986. "Deposit Market Deregulation and the Recent Behavior of M1," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 307-312, Jul-Sep.
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