A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1
Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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