A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1
Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005.
"Forecasting recessions using the yield curve,"
Journal of Forecasting,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 77-103.
- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon M. Potter, 2001. "Forecasting recessions using the yield curve," Staff Reports 134, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
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- Drechsel, Katja & Scheufele, Rolf, 2012. "The performance of short-term forecasts of the German economy before and during the 2008/2009 recession," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 428-445.
- Brand, Claus & Reimers, Hans-Eggert & Seitz, Franz, 2003. "Forecasting real GDP: what role for narrow money?," Working Paper Series 254, European Central Bank.
- Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, interest rate spreads, and economic activity," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)