A note on predicting recessions in the euro area using real M1
Real M1 is a renowned leading indicator used to forecast real economic activity. This note provides evidence that real M1 is also a suitable recession indicator that gave a clear and early signal for the Great Recession as long as changes in money demand are controlled for.
Volume (Year): 32 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
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References listed on IDEAS
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- Marcelle Chauvet & Simon Potter, 2005.
"Forecasting recessions using the yield curve,"
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- Sauer, Christine & Scheide, Joachim, 1995. "Money, interest rate spreads, and economic activity," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1664, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)