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The Effect of Nonlinearity between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts

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  • Michal Franta

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of nonlinearities on density forecasting. It focuses on the relationship between credit markets and the rest of the economy. The possible nonlinearity of this relationship is captured by a threshold vector autoregressive model estimated on US data using Bayesian methods. Density forecasts thus account for the uncertainty in all model parameters and possible future regime changes. It is shown that considering nonlinearity can improve the probabilistic assessment of the economic outlook. Moreover, three illustrative examples are discussed to shed some light on the possible practical applicability of density forecasts derived from non‐linear models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Michal Franta, 2016. "The Effect of Nonlinearity between Credit Conditions and Economic Activity on Density Forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 147-166, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:35:y:2016:i:2:p:147-166
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    Cited by:

    1. Vaclav Broz & Dominika Kolcunova & Lukas Pfeifer, 2018. "Risk-Sensitive Capital Regulation," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 1, volume 16, number rb16/1 edited by Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, March.
    2. Kamil Galuscak & Ivan Sutoris & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha & Filip Novotny & Volha Audzei & Frantisek Brazdik, 2017. "Trade and External Relations," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 1, volume 15, number rb15/1 edited by Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha, March.
    3. Lukas Pfeifer & Martin Hodula, 2018. "A Profit-to-Provisioning Approach to Setting the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: The Czech Example," Working Papers 2018/5, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    4. Miroslav Plasil & Jakub Seidler & Petr Hlavac & Volha Audzei & Jakub Mateju & Michal Kejak & Simona Malovana & Jan Frait, 2016. "Financial Cycles and Macroprudential and Monetary Policies," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 2, volume 14, number rb14/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Hlavacek, March.
    5. MeiChi Huang, 2022. "Time‐varying impacts of expectations on housing markets across hot and cold phases," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 249-265, August.
    6. Jan Bruha & Jaromir Tonner & Mojmir Hampl & Tomas Havranek & Mirko Djukic & Tibor Hledik & Jiri Polansky & Ljubica Trajcev & Jan Vlcek & Ruslan Aliyev & Dana Hajkova & Ivana Kubicova, 2017. "Effects of Monetary Policy," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 2, volume 15, number rb15/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Michal Franta & Jan Bruha, March.
    7. Michal Franta & Tibor Hledik & Jan Vlcek & Michal Dvorak & Zlatuse Komarkova & Adam Kucera & Vaclav Broz & Michal Hlavacek, 2018. "Interest Rates," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 2, volume 16, number rb16/2 edited by Jan Babecky & Volha Audzei, March.
    8. Pfeifer, Lukáš & Hodula, Martin, 2021. "A profit-to-provisioning approach to setting the countercyclical capital buffer," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    9. Jan Bruha & Jiri Polansky & Jaromir Tonner & Stanislav Tvrz & Osvald Vasicek & Jan Babecky & Kamil Galuscak & Lubomir Lizal & Diana Zigraiova, 2016. "Topics in Labour Markets," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department, edition 1, volume 14, number rb14/1 edited by Jan Babecky, March.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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