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Congestion and cascades in payment systems

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  • Walter E. Beyeler
  • Robert J. Glass
  • Morten L. Bech
  • Kimmo Soramaki

Abstract

We develop a parsimonious model of the interbank payment system to study congestion and the role of liquidity markets in alleviating congestion. The model incorporates an endogenous instruction arrival process, scale-free topology of payments between banks, fixed total liquidity that limits banks' capacity to process arriving instructions, and a global market that distributes liquidity. We find that at low liquidity, the system becomes congested and payment settlement loses correlation with payment instruction arrival, becoming coupled across the network. The onset of congestion is evidently related to the relative values of three characteristic times: the time for banks' net position to return to zero, the time for banks to exhaust their liquidity endowments, and the liquidity market relaxation time. In the congested regime, settlement takes place in cascades having a characteristic size. A global liquidity market substantially diminishes congestion, requiring only a small fraction of the payment-induced liquidity flow to achieve strong beneficial effects.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its series Staff Reports with number 259.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fednsr:259
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Keywords: Payment systems ; Bank liquidity ; International liquidity;

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  1. Anna Nagurney & Jose Cruz, 2004. "Dynamics of international financial networks with risk management," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 276-291.
  2. James J. McAndrews & Simon M. Potter, 2002. "Liquidity effects of the events of September 11, 2001," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Nov, pages 59-79.
  3. Bech, Morten L. & Garratt, Rod, 2003. "The intraday liquidity management game," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 198-219, April.
  4. Soramäki, Kimmo & Bech, Morten L. & Arnold, Jeffrey & Glass, Robert J. & Beyeler, Walter E., 2007. "The topology of interbank payment flows," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 379(1), pages 317-333.
  5. Ponzi, A. & Aizawa, Y., 2000. "Evolutionary financial market models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 287(3), pages 507-523.
  6. Adrian Dragulescu & Victor M. Yakovenko, 2000. "Statistical mechanics of money," Papers cond-mat/0001432, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2000.
  7. Anna Nagurney & Ke Ke & Jose Cruz & Kitty Hancock & Frank Southworth, 2002. "Dynamics of supply chains: a multilevel (logistical – informational – financial) network perspective," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 29(6), pages 795-818, November.
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Cited by:

  1. Perlin, Marcelo & Schanz, Jochen, 2011. "System-wide liquidity risk in the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system: an empirical analysis," Bank of England working papers 427, Bank of England.
  2. Maeno, Yoshiharu, 2013. "Transient fluctuation of the prosperity of firms in a network economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(16), pages 3351-3359.
  3. Kei Imakubo & Yutaka Soejima, 2010. "The Microstructure of Japan fs Interbank Money Market: Simulating Contagion of Intraday Flow of Funds Using BOJ-NET Payment Data," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 151-180, November.
  4. Ball, Alan & Denbee, Edward & Manning, Mark & Wetherilt, Anne, 2011. "Financial Stability Paper No 11: Intraday Liquidity - Risk and Regulation," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 11, Bank of England.
  5. Massimiliano Zanin & David Papo & Miguel Romance & Regino Criado & Santiago Moral, 2016. "The topology of card transaction money flows," Papers 1605.04938, arXiv.org.
  6. De Caux, Robert & Brede, Markus & McGroarty, Frank, 2016. "Payment prioritisation and liquidity risk in collateralised interbank payment systems," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 139-150.
  7. Olivier Armantier & Jeffrey Arnold & James J. McAndrews, 2008. "Changes in the timing distribution of Fedwire funds transfers," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 83-112.
  8. Soramäki, Kimmo & Cook, Samantha, 2012. "Algorithm for identifying systemically important banks in payment systems," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  9. Galbiati, Marco & Soramäki, Kimmo, 2011. "An agent-based model of payment systems," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 859-875, June.
  10. Huberto M. Ennis & John A. Weinberg, 2007. "Interest on reserves and daylight credit," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Spr, pages 111-142.
  11. Denbee, Edward & Norman, Ben, 2010. "The impact of payment splitting on liquidity requirements in RTGS," Bank of England working papers 404, Bank of England.
  12. Galbiati, Marco & Soramaki, Kimmo, 2010. "Liquidity-saving mechanisms and bank behaviour," Bank of England working papers 400, Bank of England.
  13. Norman, Ben, 2010. "Financial Stability Paper No 7: Liquidity Saving in Real-Time Gross Settlement Systems - an Overview," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 7, Bank of England.

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