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Evolutionary financial market models

  • Ponzi, A.
  • Aizawa, Y.
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    We study computer simulations of two financial market models, the second a simplified model of the first. The first is a model of the self-organized formation and breakup of crowds of traders, motivated by the dynamics of competitive evolving systems which shows interesting self-organized critical (SOC)-type behaviour without any fine tuning of control parameters. This SOC-type avalanching and stasis appear as realistic volatility clustering in the price returns time series. The market becomes highly ordered at ‘crashes’ but gradually loses this order through randomization during the intervening stasis periods. The second model is a model of stocks interacting through a competitive evolutionary dynamic in a common stock exchange. This model shows a self-organized ‘market-confidence’. When this is high the market is stable but when it gets low the market may become highly volatile. Volatile bursts rapidly increase the market confidence again. This model shows a phase transition as temperature parameter is varied. The price returns time series in the transition region is very realistic power-law truncated Levy distribution with clustered volatility and volatility superdiffusion. This model also shows generally positive stock cross-correlations as is observed in real markets. This model may shed some light on why such phenomena are observed.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

    Volume (Year): 287 (2000)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 507-523

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:287:y:2000:i:3:p:507-523
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