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The effects of macroeconomic shocks on sector-specific returns

  • Bradley Ewing
  • Shawn Forbes
  • James Payne

The reliance on market and sector-specific indexes to evaluate managed portfolios and the popularity of index investing has increased the importance of understanding what leads to market movements, how long they may last, and how different sectors respond to macroeconomic shocks. This research is concerned with how shocks to macroeconomic variables affect five major S&P sector-specific stock market indexes. The paper employs the newly developed econometric technique of generalized impulse response analysis. The results identify the various responses of the sectors to unanticipated changes in some key macroeconomic variables. Asset prices are commonly believed to react sensitively to economic news. Daily experience seems to support the view that individual asset prices are influenced by a wide variety of unanticipated events and that some events have a more pervasive effect on asset prices than do others. (Chen et al. 1986, p. 386)

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 35 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 201-207

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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:2:p:201-207
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  1. Ewing, Bradley T, 2001. "Monetary Policy and Stock Returns," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 73-79, January.
  2. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
  3. Lee, Bong-Soo, 1995. "The Response of Stock Prices to Permanent and Temporary Shocks to Dividends," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(01), pages 1-22, March.
  4. Ewing, Bradley T & Payne, James E & Forbes, Shawn M, 1998. "Co-movements of the Prime Rate, CD Rate, and the S&P Financial Stock Index," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 21(4), pages 469-82, Winter.
  5. Friedman, Milton, 1988. "Money and the Stock Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 221-45, April.
  6. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
  7. Willem Thorbecke, 1998. "On Stock Market Returns and Monetary Policy," Macroeconomics 9812009, EconWPA.
  8. Ewing, Bradley T., 2001. "Cross-Effects of Fundamental State Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 633-645, October.
  9. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-54, June.
  10. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 437-42, October.
  12. Estrella, Arturo & Mishkin, Frederic S., 1997. "Is there a role for monetary aggregates in the conduct of monetary policy?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 279-304, October.
  13. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
  14. Ben Bernanke, 1990. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transnission," NBER Working Papers 3487, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Runkle, David E, 1987. "Vector Autoregressions and Reality: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 454, October.
  16. Aggarwal, Reena & Inclan, Carla & Leal, Ricardo, 1999. "Volatility in Emerging Stock Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(01), pages 33-55, March.
  17. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
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