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The Endogenous And Non-Linear Relationship Between Terrorism And Economic Performance: Turkish Evidence

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  • Bahar Araz-Takay
  • K. Peren Arin
  • Tolga Omay

Abstract

This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of terror by using a novel data set from Turkey for the period of 1987:1 to 2004:4. This research contributes to the literature by controlling for the possible non-linear and endogenous relationship between political conflict and economic activity. Empirical evidence from both linear and non-linear models confirms that terrorism has a large significant negative impact on economic activity. Finally, the results from the non-linear model show that the impact of terrorism on the aggregate economy is more severe during expansionary periods, and that the impact of economic activity on terrorism is significant only in recessionary periods.

Suggested Citation

  • Bahar Araz-Takay & K. Peren Arin & Tolga Omay, 2009. "The Endogenous And Non-Linear Relationship Between Terrorism And Economic Performance: Turkish Evidence," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:defpea:v:20:y:2009:i:1:p:1-10
    DOI: 10.1080/10242690701775509
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    2. Friedrich Schneider & Tilman Brück & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "The Economics of Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: A Survey (Part I)," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1049, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Pınar Derin-Güre, 2014. "Development, immigration and terrorism," Chapters, in: Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development, chapter 15, pages 425-462, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Firat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2019. "Thirty Years of Conflict and Economic Growth in Turkey: A Synthetic Control Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 609-631, July.
    5. Kanwal Shaheen & Khalid Zaman & Hifza Mushtaq & Qurat Ul Ain & Asma Naz & Anam Bibi & Iram Akhter & Nadia Bibi & Rizwana Kousar, 2017. "Simultaneous Equations Modeling for Terrorism, Poverty, and Economic Growth: Evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(5), pages 233-244.
    6. Ali M. Kutan & Mehmet E. Yaya, 2016. "Armed conflict and financial and economic risk: evidence from Colombia," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 18(2), pages 159-187, August.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Shabbir, Muhammad Shahbaz & Malik, Muhammad Nasir & Wolters, Mark Edward, 2013. "An analysis of a causal relationship between economic growth and terrorism in Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 21-29.
    8. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2020. "Shock and awe? Fiscal consequences of terrorism," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 723-748, February.
    9. Tolga Omay, 2011. "The relationship between inflation, output growth, and their uncertainties: Nonlinear Multivariate GARCH-M evidence," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 3006-3015.
    10. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Muhammad, Nasir Malik & Muhammad, Shahbaz Shabbir, 2011. "Does economic growth cause terrorism in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 35101, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.
    11. Ali Asgary & Ali Ihsan Ozdemir, 2020. "Global risks and tourism industry in Turkey," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 54(5), pages 1513-1536, December.
    12. Fırat Bilgel & Burhan Can Karahasan, 2017. "The Economic Costs of Separatist Terrorism in Turkey," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 61(2), pages 457-479, February.
    13. Yasir Khan & Cai ShuKai & Taimoor Hassan & Jawed Kootwal & Muhammad Nisar Khan, 2021. "The links between renewable energy, fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth and trade openness: the case of Pakistan," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(9), pages 1-25, September.
    14. Omay, Tolga & Takay Araz, Bahar & Ilalan, Deniz, 2011. "The effects of terrorist activities on foreign direct investment: nonlinear Evidence," MPRA Paper 31015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Robert E.B. Lucas (ed.), 2014. "International Handbook on Migration and Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 15465.
    16. Mr. Serhan Cevik & John Ricco, 2015. "Fiscal Consequences of Terrorism," IMF Working Papers 2015/225, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Mohamed, Hassen & Ben Jebli, Mehdi & Ben Youssef, Slim, 2019. "Renewable and fossil energy, terrorism, economic growth, and trade: Evidence from France," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 459-467.
    18. Tekin Kose & Julide Yildirim & Gizem Tanrivere, 2017. "The Effects of Terrorism on Happiness: Evidence from Turkey," EcoMod2017 10229, EcoMod.
    19. Ruiz Estrada, Mario Arturo & Park, Donghyun & Khan, Alam, 2018. "The impact of terrorism on economic performance: The case of Turkey," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 78-88.
    20. José Pedro Pontes & Armando J. Garcia Pires, 2020. "(De) industrialization in the Von Thünen’s economy," Working Papers REM 2020/0141, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.

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