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Transnational Terrorism 1968–2000: Thresholds, Persistence, and Forecasts

Author

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  • Walter Enders

    () (Department of Economics, Finance, and Legal Studies, University of Alabama)

  • Todd Sandler

    () (School of International Relations, University of Southern California)

Abstract

This article applies a threshold autoregression (TAR) model to a casualties time series to show that the autoregressive nature of such events depends on the level of terrorism at the time of a shock. Following a shock, persistence of heightened attacks characterizes low-terrorism regimes, but not high-terrorism regimes. Similar findings are associated with incidents with deaths, bombings with deaths, and hostage-taking. In contrast, the assassinations series indicates some persistence even in the high-terrorism state, whereas the threats/hoaxes series displays persistence in only the high-terrorism state. For all series studied, the TAR model outperforms a standard autoregressive representation. A forecasting method is engineered based on the TAR estimates and nicely tracks resource-using events.

Suggested Citation

  • Walter Enders & Todd Sandler, 2005. "Transnational Terrorism 1968–2000: Thresholds, Persistence, and Forecasts," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 467-482, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sej:ancoec:v:71:3:y:2005:p:467-482
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Freytag, Andreas & Krüger, Jens J. & Meierrieks, Daniel & Schneider, Friedrich, 2011. "The origins of terrorism: Cross-country estimates of socio-economic determinants of terrorism," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(S1), pages 5-16.
    2. Kerim Peren ARIN & Otto. F. REICH & Oliver LORZ & Nicola SPAGNOLO, "undated". "Understanding Homeland Security: Theory and UK Evidence," EcoMod2010 259600011, EcoMod.
    3. Dreher, Axel & Fischer, Justina AV, 2007. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? An empirical test," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 686, Stockholm School of Economics.
    4. Mialon, Hugo M. & Mialon, Sue H. & Stinchcombe, Maxwell B., 2012. "Torture in counterterrorism: Agency incentives and slippery slopes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 33-41.
    5. Axel Dreher & Justina Fischer, 2008. "Decentralization as a disincentive for transnational terror? System stability versus government efficiency: an empirical test," TWI Research Paper Series 41, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universit�t Konstanz.
    6. Redlin, Margarete & Gries, Thomas & Meierrieks, Daniel, 2014. "Oppressive Governments, US Closeness, and Anti-US Terrorism," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100588, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Peren Arin, K. & Lorz, Oliver & Reich, Otto F.M. & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2011. "Exploring the dynamics between terrorism and anti-terror spending: Theory and UK-evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 189-202, February.
    8. Sarah Brockhoff & Tim Krieger & Daniel Meierrieks, 2010. "Ties That Do Not Bind (Directly): The Education-Terrorism Nexus Revisited," Working Papers CIE 26, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    9. Axel Dreher & Martin Gassebner & Lars-H. Siemers, 2010. "Does Terrorism Threaten Human Rights? Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 65-93, February.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

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