IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedgif/1260.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing

Author

Listed:
  • Shaghil Ahmed
  • Ricardo Correa
  • Daniel A. Dias
  • Nils Gornemann
  • Jasper Hoek
  • Anil K. Jain
  • Edith X. Liu
  • Anna Wong

Abstract

China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed & Ricardo Correa & Daniel A. Dias & Nils Gornemann & Jasper Hoek & Anil K. Jain & Edith X. Liu & Anna Wong, 2019. "Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1260, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1260
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1260
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/ifdp/files/ifdp1260.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Jianjun & Hsu, Sara & Qin, Yanzhi, 2014. "Shadow banking in China: Institutional risks," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 119-129.
    2. Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca & Gust, Christopher, 2008. "Trade adjustment and the composition of trade," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(8), pages 2622-2650, August.
    3. Ricardo Correa & Horacio Sapriza & Andrei Zlate, 2012. "Liquidity shocks, dollar funding costs, and the bank lending channel during the European sovereign crisis," International Finance Discussion Papers 1059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    5. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2006. "SIGMA: A New Open Economy Model for Policy Analysis," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    6. Nicola Cetorelli & Linda S. Goldberg, 2012. "Follow the Money: Quantifying Domestic Effects of Foreign Bank Shocks in the Great Recession," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 213-218, May.
    7. Dieppe, Alistair & Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jenny & Korhonen, Iikka & Lodge, David, 2018. "The transition of China to sustainable growth – implications for the global economy and the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 206, European Central Bank.
    8. Chang-Tai Hsieh & Peter J. Klenow, 2009. "Misallocation and Manufacturing TFP in China and India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1403-1448.
    9. Bodenstein, Martin & Erceg, Christopher J. & Guerrieri, Luca, 2011. "Oil shocks and external adjustment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 168-184, March.
    10. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    11. Gilhooly, Robert & Han, Jen & Lloyd, Simon & Reynolds, Niamh & Young, David, 2018. "From the Middle Kingdom to the United Kingdom: spillovers from China," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 58(2), pages 11-20.
    12. Guonan Ma & Ivan Roberts & Gerard Kelly, 2017. "Rebalancing China's Economy: Domestic and International Implications," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 1-31, January.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    14. Gust, Christopher & Leduc, Sylvain & Sheets, Nathan, 2009. "The adjustment of global external balances: Does partial exchange-rate pass-through to trade prices matter?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 173-185, November.
    15. Manu, Ana-Simona & McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2018. "The role of factor substitution and technical progress in China's great expansion," Working Paper Series 2180, European Central Bank.
    16. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422.
    17. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    18. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    19. Tong Li, 2014. "Shadow banking in China: expanding scale, evolving structure," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 6(3), pages 198-211, July.
    20. Claudia M Buch & Linda S Goldberg, 2015. "International Banking and Liquidity Risk Transmission: Lessons from Across Countries," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 63(3), pages 377-410, November.
    21. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    22. Emily Perry & Florian Weltewitz, 2015. "Wealth Management Products in China," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 59-68, June.
    23. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January.
    24. Torsten Ehlers & Steven Kong & Feng Zhu, 2018. "Mapping shadow banking in China: structure and dynamics," BIS Working Papers 701, Bank for International Settlements.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Financial crisis; Spillovers; Financial system;

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1260. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/frbgvus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.