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Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing

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Abstract

China?s economy has become larger and more interconnected with the rest of the world, thus raising the possibility that acute financial stress in China may lead to global financial instability. This paper analyzes the potential spillovers of such an event to the rest of the world with three methodologies: a VAR, an event study, and a DSGE model. We find the sentiment channel to be the primary spillover channel to the United States, affecting global risk aversion and asset prices such as equity prices and the dollar, in addition to modest real effects through the trade channel. In comparison, the combined financial and real effects to other advanced and emerging market economies, especially net commodity exporters, would be more consequential due to their larger direct exposure to China and more limited scope of monetary policy to respond to shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Shaghil Ahmed & Ricardo Correa & Daniel A. Dias & Nils M. Gornemann & Jasper Hoek & Anil K. Jain & Edith X. Liu & Anna Wong, 2019. "Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing," International Finance Discussion Papers 1260, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1260
    DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1260
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    2. Keddad, Benjamin, 2024. "Asian stock market volatility and economic policy uncertainty: The role of world and regional leaders," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    3. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, december.
    4. Antonelli, Stefano & Corneli, Flavia & Ferriani, Fabrizio & Gazzani, Andrea, 2022. "Benchmark effects from the inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI EM index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    5. Bazán-Palomino, Walter, 2023. "The increased interest in Bitcoin and the immediate and long-term impact of Bitcoin volatility on global stock markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1080-1095.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; Financial crisis; Spillovers; Financial system;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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