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Measuring potential market risk

  • Bask, Mikael

We argue herein that there is a fundamental and an important difference between the market risk and the potential market risk in financial markets. We also argue that the spectrum of smooth Lyapunov exponents can be used in ([lambda],[sigma]2)-analysis, which is a method to measure and monitor these risks. The reason is that these exponents focus on the stability properties ([lambda]) of the stochastic dynamic system generating asset returns, while more traditional risk measures such as value-at-risk are concerned with the distribution of asset returns ([sigma]2).

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B7CRR-4X1SBDP-1/2/0cd819df3293985dfa79106d08c462d1
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 180-186

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:6:y:2010:i:3:p:180-186
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jfstabil

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  1. Gencay Ramazan & Dechert W. Davis, 1996. "The Identification of Spurious Lyapunov Exponents in Jacobian Algorithms," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
  2. Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
  3. Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Staff Reports 65, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Leeves, Gareth, 2007. "Asymmetric volatility of stock returns during the Asian crisis: Evidence from Indonesia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 272-286.
  5. Bask , Mikael & Liu , Tung & Widerberg , Anna, 2006. "The stability of electricity prices: estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Research Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland.
  6. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2009. "Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 278-288, March.
  7. Dechert, W D & Gencay, R, 1992. "Lyapunov Exponents as a Nonparametric Diagnostic for Stability Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S41-60, Suppl. De.
  8. Xavier De Luna, 1998. "Projected polynomial autoregression for prediction of stationary time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 763-775.
  9. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
  10. Mototsugu Shintani, 2002. "A Nonparametric Measure of Convergence Toward Purchasing Power Parity," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0219, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Jul 2004.
  11. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The Stability and Volatility of Electricity Prices: An Illustration of (lambda, sigma-2) Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 267, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
  12. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930.
  13. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2003. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2097, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  14. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence," Umeå Economic Studies 565, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
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