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Measuring potential market risk

  • Bask, Mikael

We argue herein that there is a fundamental and an important difference between the market risk and the potential market risk in financial markets. We also argue that the spectrum of smooth Lyapunov exponents can be used in ([lambda],[sigma]2)-analysis, which is a method to measure and monitor these risks. The reason is that these exponents focus on the stability properties ([lambda]) of the stochastic dynamic system generating asset returns, while more traditional risk measures such as value-at-risk are concerned with the distribution of asset returns ([sigma]2).

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Financial Stability.

Volume (Year): 6 (2010)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 180-186

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Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:6:y:2010:i:3:p:180-186
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  1. Mikael Bask & Tung Liu & Anna Widerberg, 2006. "The Stability of Electricity Prices: Estimation and Inference of the Lyapunov Exponent," Working Papers 200603, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2006.
  2. Mototsugu Shintani & Oliver Linton, 2002. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 2093, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2009. "Market structure and the stability and volatility of electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 278-288, March.
  4. Potter, Simon M., 2000. "Nonlinear impulse response functions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(10), pages 1425-1446, September.
  5. Dechert, W D & Gencay, R, 1992. "Lyapunov Exponents as a Nonparametric Diagnostic for Stability Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages S41-60, Suppl. De.
  6. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "Characterizing the degree of stability of non-linear dynamic models," Umeå Economic Studies 564, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  7. Xavier De Luna, 1998. "Projected polynomial autoregression for prediction of stationary time series," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(6), pages 763-775.
  8. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, . "Testing Chaotic Dynamics via Lyapunov Exponents," Working Papers 2000-07, FEDEA.
  9. Mototsugu Shintani, 2006. "A nonparametric measure of convergence towards purchasing power parity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 589-604.
  10. Leeves, Gareth, 2007. "Asymmetric volatility of stock returns during the Asian crisis: Evidence from Indonesia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 272-286.
  11. Gencay Ramazan & Dechert W. Davis, 1996. "The Identification of Spurious Lyapunov Exponents in Jacobian Algorithms," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
  12. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence," Umeå Economic Studies 565, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
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