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EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Bask, Mikael

    () (Department of Economics, Umeå University)

  • de Luna, Xavier

    () (Department of Statistics)

Abstract

How has the European monetary integration, with the creation of the EMU, affected the stability and volatility of foreign exchange? In order to answer this question, stability and volatility measures are defined and calculated. We then use these to investigate the changes in the stability and volatility of 16 European currencies, and in the volatility of the shocks to these currencies. The stability measures are based on smooth Lyapunov exponents, while the volatility measures utilize the variances. The results indicate that when most of the currencies become more stable, the majority also become less volatile. For example, following the agreement of the Maastricht Treaty most currencies became more stable and less volatile, whereas they became less stable and more volatile when the Danish public voted against the treaty. Finally, there is no empirical support for the view that a decision to step aside from a closer monetary collaboration has a negative effect on the stability of the currency.

Suggested Citation

  • Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence," Umeå Economic Studies 565, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:umnees:0565
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The stability of electricity prices: Estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 565-572.
    2. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2011. "What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 39-61, February.
    3. Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
    4. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2006. "The stability of electricity prices : estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Research Discussion Papers 9/2006, Bank of Finland.
    5. Bask, Mikael, 2010. "Measuring potential market risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 180-186, September.
    6. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Measuring potential market risk," Research Discussion Papers 20/2007, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    EMU; Foreign Exchange; Smooth Lyapunov Exponents; Stability; Volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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