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Measuring potential market risk

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  • Bask, Mikael

Abstract

The difference between market risk and potential market risk is emphasized and a measure of the latter risk is proposed. Specifically, it is argued that the spectrum of smooth Lyapunov exponents can be utilized in what we call (??2)-analysis, which is a method to monitor the aforementioned risk measures. The reason is that these exponents focus on the stability properties (?) of the stochastic dynamic system generating asset returns, while more traditional risk measures such as value-at-risk are concerned with the distribution of returns (?2). Keywords: market risk, potential market risk, smooth Lyapunov exponents, stochastic dynamic system, value-at-risk JEL classification number: G11

Suggested Citation

  • Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Measuring potential market risk," Research Discussion Papers 20/2007, Bank of Finland.
  • Handle: RePEc:bof:bofrdp:2007_020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bask, Mikael & Liu, Tung & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The stability of electricity prices: Estimation and inference of the Lyapunov exponents," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 376(C), pages 565-572.
    2. Shintani, Mototsugu & Linton, Oliver, 2004. "Nonparametric neural network estimation of Lyapunov exponents and a direct test for chaos," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 1-33, May.
    3. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Fernando Fernández-Rodriguez & Julián Andrada-Félix, 2005. "Testing chaotic dynamics via Lyapunov exponents," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(7), pages 911-930.
    4. Gencay Ramazan & Dechert W. Davis, 1996. "The Identification of Spurious Lyapunov Exponents in Jacobian Algorithms," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(3), pages 1-12, October.
    5. Bask, Mikael & Widerberg, Anna, 2007. "The Stability and Volatility of Electricity Prices: An Illustration of (lambda, sigma-2) Analysis," Working Papers in Economics 267, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics.
    6. Bask Mikael & de Luna Xavier, 2002. "Characterizing the Degree of Stability of Non-linear Dynamic Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(1), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Dechert, W D & Gencay, R, 1992. "Lyapunov Exponents as a Nonparametric Diagnostic for Stability Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 41-60, Suppl. De.
    8. Leeves, Gareth, 2007. "Asymmetric volatility of stock returns during the Asian crisis: Evidence from Indonesia," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 272-286.
    9. Bask, Mikael & de Luna, Xavier, 2001. "EMU and the Stability and Volatility of Foreign Exchange: Some Empirical Evidence," Umeå Economic Studies 565, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    10. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
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    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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