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Прогнозиране На Данъчните Приходи При Пандемия В Малка Отворена Икономика
[Forecasting pandemic tax revenues in a small, open economy]

Author

Listed:
  • Fabio Ashtar Telarico

    (Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, University of Ljubljana)

Abstract

Данъчният анализ и прогнозирането на приходите са от първостепенно значение за гарантиране на жизнеспособността и устойчивостта на фискалната политика. Въпреки това мерките, предприети за ограничаване на разпространението на неотдавнашната пандемия, представляват безпрецедентно предизвикателство за установените модели и подходи. В настоящата статия се предлага модел за прогнозиране на данъчните приходи в България за фискалните години 2020-2022 г., изграден в съответствие с препоръките на Международния валутен фонд върху набор от данни, обхващащ периода между 1995 и 2019 г. По-нататък в изследването се обсъжда действителната надеждност на официалните български прогнози, като тези данни се съпоставят с предварително оценения модел. Количествените резултати от това проучване едновременно потвърждават предполагаемото отрицателно въздействие на пандемията върху данъчните приходи и доказват, че иконометрията може да бъде коригирана, за да се получат последователни прогнози за приходите дори в сравнително неизследвания случай на България, предлагайки нови идеи на създателите на политики и застъпниците.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabio Ashtar Telarico, 2021. "Прогнозиране На Данъчните Приходи При Пандемия В Малка Отворена Икономика [Forecasting pandemic tax revenues in a small, open economy]," Post-Print hal-03500128, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03500128
    DOI: 10.7251/NOEEN2129018T
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03500128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    2. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 329-383.
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