Certainty and Overconfidence in Future Preferences for Food
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Thunström, Linda & Nordström, Jonas & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 101-113.
References listed on IDEAS
- Klayman, Joshua & Soll, Jack B. & Gonzalez-Vallejo, Claudia & Barlas, Sema, 1999. "Overconfidence: It Depends on How, What, and Whom You Ask, , , , , , , , ," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 216-247, September.
- Hogarth, Robin M. (ed.), 1990. "Insights in Decision Making," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226348551, June.
- David C. Kingsley & Thomas C. Brown, 2010. "Preference Uncertainty, Preference Learning, and Paired Comparison Experiments," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
- Alberini, Anna & Boyle, Kevin & Welsh, Michael, 2003. "Analysis of contingent valuation data with multiple bids and response options allowing respondents to express uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 40-62, January.
- Christian Vossler & Michael McKee, 2006. "Induced-Value Tests of Contingent Valuation Elicitation Mechanisms," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 35(2), pages 137-168, October.
- Payne, John W & Bettman, James R & Schkade, David A, 1999. "Measuring Constructed Preferences: Towards a Building Code," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 19(1-3), pages 243-270, December.
- Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014.
"Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
- Luci Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon M. Potter, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Staff Reports 680, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Onorante, Luca & Alessi, Lucia & Ghysels, Eric & Potter, Simon & Peach, Richard, 2014. "Central bank macroeconomic forecasting during the global financial crisis: the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York experiences," Working Paper Series 1688, European Central Bank.
- George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2003.
"Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1209-1248.
- Loewenstein, George & O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 2000. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt5qh6142m, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- George Loewenstein & Ted O'Donoghue & Matthew Rabin, 2001. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," General Economics and Teaching 0012003, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Loewenstein, George & O'Donoghue, Ted & Rabin, Matthew, 2002. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," Working Papers 02-11, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
- George Loewenstein, Ted O'Donoghue and Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Projection Bias in Predicting Future Utility," Economics Working Papers E00-284, University of California at Berkeley.
- Richard C. Ready & Ståle Navrud & RW. Richard Dubourg, 2001. "How Do Respondents with Uncertain Willingness to Pay Answer Contingent Valuation Questions?," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 77(3), pages 315-326.
- Nelson, Phillip, 1970. "Information and Consumer Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 311-329, March-Apr.
- Dan Ariely & George Loewenstein & Drazen Prelec, 2003. ""Coherent Arbitrariness": Stable Demand Curves Without Stable Preferences," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 73-106.
- Nick Hanley & Bengt Kriström & Jason F. Shogren, 2009. "Coherent Arbitrariness: On Value Uncertainty for Environmental Goods," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(1), pages 41-50.
- Wang, Hua, 1997. "Treatment of "Don't-Know" Responses in Contingent Valuation Surveys: A Random Valuation Model," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 219-232, February.
- Banerjee, Prasenjit & Shogren, Jason F., 2014.
"Bidding behavior given point and interval values in a second-price auction,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 126-137.
- Jason F. Shogren & Jason F. Shogren, 2013. "Bidding Behavior given Point and Interval Values in a Second-price Auction," Economics Discussion Paper Series 1310, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Nelson, Philip, 1974. "Advertising as Information," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(4), pages 729-754, July/Aug..
- Champ, Patricia A. & Bishop, Richard C. & Brown, Thomas C. & McCollum, Daniel W., 1997. "Using Donation Mechanisms to Value Nonuse Benefits from Public Goods," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 151-162, June.
- Eric Van den Steen, 2004. "Rational Overoptimism (and Other Biases)," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1141-1151, September.
- G. Cornelis van Kooten & Emina Krcmar & Erwin H. Bulte, 2001. "Preference Uncertainty in Non-Market Valuation: A Fuzzy Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(3), pages 487-500.
- Mary F. Evans & Nicholas E. Flores & Kevin J. Boyle, 2003. "Multiple-Bounded Uncertainty Choice Data as Probabilistic Intentions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(4), pages 549-560.
- Stigler, George J & Becker, Gary S, 1977. "De Gustibus Non Est Disputandum," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(2), pages 76-90, March.
- Hoelzl, Erik & Pollai, Maria & Kamleitner, Bernadette, 2009. "Experience, prediction and recollection of loan burden," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 446-454, June.
- Spash, Clive L., 2002. "Informing and forming preferences in environmental valuation: Coral reef biodiversity," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 665-687, October.
- Faruk Gul & Wolfgang Pesendorfer, 2001.
"Temptation and Self-Control,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1403-1435, November.
- W. Pesendorfer & F. Gul, 1999. "Temptation and Self-Control," Princeton Economic Theory Papers 99f1, Economics Department, Princeton University.
- Kevin J. Lansing & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Persistent overoptimism about economic growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- James G. March, 1978. "Bounded Rationality, Ambiguity, and the Engineering of Choice," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 9(2), pages 587-608, Autumn.
- Welsh, Michael P. & Poe, Gregory L., 1998. "Elicitation Effects in Contingent Valuation: Comparisons to a Multiple Bounded Discrete Choice Approach," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 170-185, September.
- Li Chuan-Zhong & Mattsson Leif, 1995. "Discrete Choice under Preference Uncertainty: An Improved Structural Model for Contingent Valuation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 256-269, March.
- Brown, Thomas C. & Kingsley, David & Peterson, George L. & Flores, Nicholas E. & Clarke, Andrea & Birjulin, Andrej, 2008. "Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response time, and preference refinement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(7), pages 1595-1606, July.
- Karen Blumenschein & Magnus Johannesson & Glenn C. Blomquist & Bengt Liljas & Richard M. O’Conor, 1998. "Experimental Results on Expressed Certainty and Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 169-177, July.
- Kreps, David M, 1979. "A Representation Theorem for "Preference for Flexibility"," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(3), pages 565-577, May.
- Sniezek, Janet A. & Paese, Paul W. & Switzer, Fred S., 1990. "The effect of choosing on confidence in choice," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 264-282, August.
- R. Vijay Krishna & Philipp Sadowski, 2014. "Dynamic Preference for Flexibility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(2), pages 655-703, March.
- Gregory Poe & Jeremy Clark & Daniel Rondeau & William Schulze, 2002. "Provision Point Mechanisms and Field Validity Tests of Contingent Valuation," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 23(1), pages 105-131, September.
- Dolan, Paul & Metcalfe, Robert, 2010. "'Oops...I did it again': Repeated focusing effects in reports of happiness," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 732-737, August.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Diego Lanzi, 2018. "On Embedded Choice Theory: Re-framing and Emotions," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 11, pages 19-30, February.
- Takunori Ishihara & Takanori Ida, 2022.
"The Effect of Information Provision on Stated and Revealed Preferences: A Field Experiment on the Choice of Power Tariffs Before and After Japanese Retail Electricity Liberalization,"
Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 82(3), pages 573-599, July.
- Takunori ISHIHARA & Takanori IDA, 2019. "The Effect of Information Provision on Stated and Revealed Preferences:A Field Experiment on the Choice of Power Tariffs Before and After Japanese Retail Electricity Liberalization," Discussion papers e-19-006, Graduate School of Economics , Kyoto University.
- Michalis Skourtos & Dimitris Damigos & Areti Kontogianni & Christos Tourkolias & Alistair Hunt, 2019. "Embedding Preference Uncertainty for Environmental Amenities in Climate Change Economic Assessments: A “Random” Step Forward," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-22, October.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Rebecca Moore & Richard C. Bishop & Bill Provencher & Patricia A. Champ, 2010. "Accounting for Respondent Uncertainty to Improve Willingness‐to‐Pay Estimates," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 381-401, September.
- Nikita Lyssenko & Roberto Mart-Espiñeira, 2012.
"Respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation: the case of whale conservation in Newfoundland and Labrador,"
Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(15), pages 1911-1930, May.
- Lyssenko, Nikita & Martinez-Espineira, Roberto, 2009. "Respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation: the case of whale conservation in Newfoundland and Labrador," MPRA Paper 21969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Shaikh, Sabina L. & Sun, Lili & Cornelis van Kooten, G., 2007. "Treating respondent uncertainty in contingent valuation: A comparison of empirical treatments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(1), pages 115-125, April.
- Jerrod Penn & Wuyang Hu, 2023. "Adjusting and Calibrating Elicited Values Based on Follow-up Certainty Questions: A Meta-analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 84(4), pages 919-946, April.
- Richard C. Ready & Patricia A. Champ & Jennifer L. Lawton, 2010. "Using Respondent Uncertainty to Mitigate Hypothetical Bias in a Stated Choice Experiment," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(2), pages 363-381.
- Voltaire, Louinord & Pirrone, Claudio & Bailly, Denis, 2013. "Dealing with preference uncertainty in contingent willingness to pay for a nature protection program: A new approach," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 76-85.
- Moore, Rebecca & Bishop, Richard C. & Provencher, Bill & Champ, Patricia A., 2009. "Accounting for Respondent Uncertainty to Improve Willingness-to-Pay Estimates," Staff Papers 92233, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
- Karen Blumenschein & GlennC. Blomquist & Magnus Johannesson & Nancy Horn & Patricia Freeman, 2008.
"Eliciting Willingness to Pay Without Bias: Evidence from a Field Experiment,"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 114-137, January.
- Karen Blumenschein & Glenn C. Blomquist & Magnus Johannesson & Nancy Horn & Patricia Freeman, 2008. "Eliciting Willingness to Pay Without Bias: Evidence from a Field Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 114-137, January.
- Sun, Lili & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2005.
"Fuzzy Logic and Preference Uncertainty in Non-market Valuation,"
Working Papers
37021, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
- Lili Sun & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2005. "Fuzzy Logic and Preference Uncertainty in Non-market Valuation," Working Papers 2005-11, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
- Ana Bedate & Luis Herrero & José Sanz, 2009. "Economic valuation of a contemporary art museum: correction of hypothetical bias using a certainty question," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 33(3), pages 185-199, August.
- Sund, Björn, 2009. "Certainty calibration in contingent valuation - exploring the within-difference between dichotomous choice and open-ended answers as a certainty measure," Working Papers 2009:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
- Vossler, Christian A., 2003. "Multiple bounded discrete choice contingent valuation: parametric and nonparametric welfare estimation and a comparison to the payment card," MPRA Paper 38867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Sabina Shaikh & Lili Sun & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2005.
"The Effect of Uncertainty on Contingent Valuation Estimates: A Comparison,"
Working Papers
2005-15, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
- Shaikh, Sabina L. & Sun, Lili & van Kooten, G. Cornelis, 2005. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Contingent Valuation Estimates: A Comparison," Working Papers 37025, University of Victoria, Resource Economics and Policy.
- Broberg, Thomas & Brännlund, Runar, 2008. "An alternative interpretation of multiple bounded WTP data--Certainty dependent payment card intervals," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 555-567, December.
- Emmanuel Flachaire & Guillaume Hollard, 2007.
"Model Selection in Iterative Valuation Questions,"
Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 117(5), pages 853-865.
- Emmanuel Flachaire & Guillaume Hollard, 2007. "Model selection in iterative valuation questions," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00176033, HAL.
- Emmanuel Flachaire & Guillaume Hollard, 2007. "Model selection in iterative valuation questions," Post-Print halshs-00176033, HAL.
- Carola Braun & Katrin Rehdanz & Ulrich Schmidt, 2016.
"Validity of Willingness to Pay Measures under Preference Uncertainty,"
PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(4), pages 1-17, April.
- Braun, Carola & Rehdanz, Katrin & Schmidt, Ulrich, 2016. "Validity of Willingness to Pay Measures under Preference Uncertainty," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 141320, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
- Thomas Lundhede & Jette Bredahl Jacobsen & Nick Hanley & Niels Strange & Bo Jellesmark Thorsen, 2015. "Incorporating Outcome Uncertainty and Prior Outcome Beliefs in Stated Preferences," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 91(2), pages 296-316.
- Seon-Ae Kim & Jeffrey M. Gillespie & Krishna P. Paudel, 2008.
"Rotational grazing adoption in cattle production under a cost-share agreement: does uncertainty have a role in conservation technology adoption?,"
Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 235-252, September.
- Kim, Seon-Ae & Gillespie, Jeffrey M. & Paudel, Krishna P., 2008. "Rotational grazing adoption in cattle production under a cost-share agreement: does uncertainty have a role in conservation technology adoption?," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 52(3), pages 1-18.
- Persichina, Marco & Kriström, Bengt, 2022. "Self-selected intervals in psycho-physic experiments and the measurement of willingness to pay," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
- Glenn Blomquist & Karen Blumenschein & Magnus Johannesson, 2009. "Eliciting Willingness to Pay without Bias using Follow-up Certainty Statements: Comparisons between Probably/Definitely and a 10-point Certainty Scale," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 43(4), pages 473-502, August.
More about this item
Keywords
Choice flexibility; Preference uncertainty; Overconfidence; Sub-optimal decisions; Food;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- D03 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Behavioral Microeconomics: Underlying Principles
- D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
- D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
- D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-CBE-2015-03-13 (Cognitive and Behavioural Economics)
- NEP-DCM-2015-03-13 (Discrete Choice Models)
- NEP-EXP-2015-03-13 (Experimental Economics)
- NEP-UPT-2015-03-13 (Utility Models and Prospect Theory)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:foi:wpaper:2015_04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geir Tveit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/foikudk.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.