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Multiple-Bounded Uncertainty Choice Data as Probabilistic Intentions

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  • Mary F. Evans
  • Nicholas E. Flores
  • Kevin J. Boyle

Abstract

The multiple-bounded uncertainty choice (MBUC) value elicitation method allows respondents to indicate qualitative levels of uncertainty, as opposed to a simple yes or no, across a range of prices. We argue that MBUC responses convey subjective probabilities. We examine the decision process of the researcher faced with estimating population parameters from MBUC sample responses. We develop her optimal decision rule based on a specified loss function. The resulting estimator accommodates uncertainty on the part of the respondent and the researcher. We illustrate the proposed estimation method using MBUC responses from the first field application of this elicitation format. The resulting framework produces stable estimates and nests alternative methods of modeling MBUC responses.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary F. Evans & Nicholas E. Flores & Kevin J. Boyle, 2003. "Multiple-Bounded Uncertainty Choice Data as Probabilistic Intentions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 79(4), pages 549-560.
  • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:79:y:2003:i:4:p:549-560
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thunström, Linda & Nordström, Jonas & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 101-113.
    2. Rebecca Moore & Richard C. Bishop & Bill Provencher & Patricia A. Champ, 2010. "Accounting for Respondent Uncertainty to Improve Willingness-to-Pay Estimates," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 58(3), pages 381-401, September.
    3. Steven B. Caudill & Peter A. Groothuis, 2005. "Modeling Hidden Alternatives in Random Utility Models: An Application to "Don’t Know" Responses in Contingent Valuation," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 81(3).
    4. Emmanouil Mentzakis & Mandy Ryan & Paul McNamee, 2014. "Modelling Heterogeneity and Uncertainty in Contingent Valuation: an Application to the Valuation of Informal Care," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 1-25, February.
    5. Vossler, Christian A. & Poe, Gregory L., 2005. "Analysis of contingent valuation data with multiple bids and response options allowing respondents to express uncertainty: a comment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 197-200, January.
    6. Vossler, Christian A., 2003. "Multiple bounded discrete choice contingent valuation: parametric and nonparametric welfare estimation and a comparison to the payment card," MPRA Paper 38867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:eee:touman:v:64:y:2018:i:c:p:37-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. G. Concu, 2004. "A choice modelling approach to investigate biases in individual and aggregated benefit estimates due to omission of distance," Working Paper CRENoS 200412, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    9. Kelvin Balcombe & Aurelia Samuel & Iain Fraser, 2009. "Estimating WTP With Uncertainty Choice Contingent Valuation," Studies in Economics 0921, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    10. Karen Blumenschein & GlennC. Blomquist & Magnus Johannesson & Nancy Horn & Patricia Freeman, 2008. "Eliciting Willingness to Pay Without Bias: Evidence from a Field Experiment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(525), pages 114-137, January.
    11. Simona Bigerna & Paolo Polinori, 2015. "Willingness to Pay and Public Acceptance for Hydrogen Buses: A Case Study of Perugia," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 7(10), pages 1-20, September.
    12. Wang, Hua & Shi, Yuyan & Kim, Yoonhee & Kamata, Takuya, 2013. "Valuing water quality improvement in China: A case study of Lake Puzhehei in Yunnan Province," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 56-65.
    13. Kelvin Balcombe & Iain Fraser, 2009. "A General Treatment of Non-Response Data From Choice Experiments Using Logit Models," Studies in Economics 0916, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    14. Boman, Mattias, 2009. "To pay or not to pay for biodiversity in forests - What scale determines responses to willingness to pay questions with uncertain response options?," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-2), pages 79-91, January.
    15. Cristeche, Estela & Tello, Diego & de Prada, Jorge & Brescia, Victor, 2015. "Contigent Valuation with Multiple Bounded Format and Uncertainty Response of a Rural Land Zoning Program in the South of Cordoba Province, Argentina," 2015 Conference, August 9-14, 2015, Milan, Italy 211551, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    16. Bigerna, Simona & Polinori, Paolo, 2014. "Italian households׳ willingness to pay for green electricity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 110-121.
    17. Eli P. Fenichel & Frank Lupi & John P. Hoehn & Michael D. Kaplowitz, 2009. "Split-Sample Tests of "No Opinion" Responses in an Attribute-Based Choice Model," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 85(2), pages 348-362.
    18. Brown, Thomas C. & Morrison, Mark D. & Benfield, Jacob A. & Rainbolt, Gretchen Nurse & Bell, Paul A., 2015. "Exchange asymmetry in experimental settings," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 104-116.
    19. Provencher, Bill & Lewis, David J. & Anderson, Kathryn, 2012. "Disentangling preferences and expectations in stated preference analysis with respondent uncertainty: The case of invasive species prevention," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 169-182.
    20. Broberg, Thomas & Brännlund, Runar, 2008. "An alternative interpretation of multiple bounded WTP data--Certainty dependent payment card intervals," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 555-567, December.
    21. Kehlbacher, A. & Bennett, R. & Balcombe, K., 2012. "Measuring the consumer benefits of improving farm animal welfare to inform welfare labelling," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 627-633.
    22. Wang, Hua & Xie, Jian & Li, Honglin, 2010. "Water pricing with household surveys: A study of acceptability and willingness to pay in Chongqing, China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 136-149, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q26 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Recreational Aspects of Natural Resources

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