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Persistent overoptimism about economic growth

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  • Kevin J. Lansing
  • Benjamin Pyle

Abstract

Since 2007, Federal Open Market Committee participants have been persistently too optimistic about future U.S. economic growth. Real GDP growth forecasts have typically started high, but then are revised down over time as the incoming data continue to disappoint. Possible explanations for this pattern include missed warning signals about the buildup of imbalances before the crisis, overestimation of the efficacy of monetary policy following a balance-sheet recession, and the natural tendency of forecasters to extrapolate from recent data.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Lansing & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Persistent overoptimism about economic growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00043
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    2. repec:fip:fedfsp:y:2013:i:sept9 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Loungani, Prakash, 2001. "How accurate are private sector forecasts? Cross-country evidence from consensus forecasts of output growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 419-432.
    4. John C Williams, 2013. "Bubbles Tomorrow and Bubbles Yesterday, but Never Bubbles Today?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 224-230, October.
    5. Lucia Alessi & Eric Ghysels & Luca Onorante & Richard Peach & Simon Potter, 2014. "Central Bank Macroeconomic Forecasting During the Global Financial Crisis: The European Central Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of New York Experiences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 483-500, October.
    6. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us about Information Rigidities?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(1), pages 116-159.
    7. John C. Williams, 2013. "Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sept23.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Andrew Foerster, 2023. "The Evolution of Disagreement in the Dot Plot," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2023(21), pages 1-6, August.
    3. Cust,James Frederick & Mihalyi,David, 2017. "Evidence for a presource curse ? oil discoveries, elevated expectations, and growth disappointments," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8140, The World Bank.
    4. John B. Broughton & Bento J. Lobo, 2018. "Herding and anchoring in macroeconomic forecasts: the case of the PMI," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1337-1355, November.

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