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Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?

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Abstract

Standard asset price models have generally failed to detect bubbles, with enormous costs to the economy. Economists are now creating promising new models that account for bubbles by relaxing the assumption of rational expectations and allowing people?s decisions to be driven by their perceptions of what the future may hold. ; This letter is adapted from a presentation by the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to the National Association for Business Economics in San Francisco, California, on September 9, 2013.

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  • John C. Williams, 2013. "Bubbles tomorrow and bubbles yesterday, but never bubbles today?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sept23.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2013:i:sept23:n:2013-27
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    Cited by:

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    2. Anundsen, André Kallåk & Heebøll, Christian, 2016. "Supply restrictions, subprime lending and regional US house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 54-72.
    3. Hodula Martin & Malovaná Simona & Frait Jan, 2022. "Too much of a good thing? Households’ macroeconomic conditions and credit dynamics," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 23(4), pages 529-566, December.
    4. Taehyun Lee & Ioannis C Moutzouris & Nikos C Papapostolou & Mahmoud Fatouh, 2023. "Foreign exchange hedging using regime-switching models: the case of pound sterling," Bank of England working papers 1042, Bank of England.
    5. Mahmoud Fatouh & Simone Giansante, 2023. "The cyclicality of bank credit losses and capital ratios under expected loss model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 330(1), pages 807-840, November.
    6. Kevin J. Lansing & Benjamin Pyle, 2015. "Persistent overoptimism about economic growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Frydman, Roman & Stillwagon, Joshua R., 2018. "Fundamental factors and extrapolation in stock-market expectations: The central role of structural change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 189-198.
    8. Mahmoud Fatouh & Simone Giansante, 2023. "The cyclicality of bank credit losses and capital ratios under expected loss model," Bank of England working papers 1013, Bank of England.
    9. Bertsatos, Georgios & Sakellaris, Plutarchos, 2016. "A dynamic model of bank valuation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 15-18.
    10. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
    11. Roman Frydman & Joshua R. Stillwagon, 2016. "Stock-Market Expectations: Econometric Evidence that both REH and Behavioral Insights Matter," Working Papers Series 44, Institute for New Economic Thinking.

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