IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v169y2024ics0165188924001490.html

What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?

Author

Listed:
  • Figura, Andrew
  • Waller, Chris

Abstract

Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing in the labor market should take into account the current state of the labor market and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment. We use a simple model of the Beveridge curve to investigate what conditions are necessary for a soft landing in the labor market to occur and what the likelihood of these conditions was during the height of the pandemic-period inflation. We find that a soft landing was a plausible outcome at that time. Since then, the evolution of the labor market has borne out that prediction.

Suggested Citation

  • Figura, Andrew & Waller, Chris, 2024. "What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001490
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001490
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104957?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    2. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    3. Toshihiko Mukoyama & Christina Patterson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2018. "Job Search Behavior over the Business Cycle," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 190-215, January.
    4. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2012. "Recruiting Intensity during and after the Great Recession: National and Industry Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(3), pages 584-588, May.
    5. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Lu Zhang & Lars-Alexander Kuehn, 2018. "Endogenous Disasters," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(8), pages 2212-2245, August.
    6. Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 83-106, Spring.
    7. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2017. "The Relative Power of Employment-to-Employment Reallocation and Unemployment Exits in Predicting Wage Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 364-368, May.
    8. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer, 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 287-291, May.
    9. Brandyn Bok & Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Robert G. Valletta & Mary Yilma, 2022. "Finding a Soft Landing along the Beveridge Curve," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, vol. 2022(24), pages 1-6, August.
    10. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2016. "Declining Desire to Work and Downward Trends in Unemployment and Participation," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 449-494.
    11. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Building a composite Help-Wanted Index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 175-178, December.
    12. Hie Joo Ahn & James D. Hamilton, 2020. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 554-569, July.
    13. Garey Ramey & Wouter J. den Haan & Joel Watson, 2000. "Job Destruction and Propagation of Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 482-498, June.
    14. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
    15. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    16. Fatih Karahan & Ryan Michaels & Benjamin Pugsley & Ayşegül Şahin & Rachel Schuh, 2017. "Do Job-to-Job Transitions Drive Wage Fluctuations over the Business Cycle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(5), pages 353-357, May.
    17. Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2020. "COVID-19 Is Also a Reallocation Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 329-383.
    18. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    19. Alberto Cavallo, 2024. "Inflation with Covid Consumption Baskets," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 72(2), pages 902-917, June.
    20. Olivier J Blanchard & Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space," Policy Briefs PB22-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    21. repec:osf:socarx:c8wk7_v1 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2015. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 222-249, October.
    23. Joshua Montes & Christopher L. Smith, 2022. ""The Great Retirement Boom": The Pandemic-Era Surge in Retirements and Implications for Future Labor Force Participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-081, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahn, Hie Joo & Rudd, Jeremy B., 2025. "(Re-)Connecting inflation and the labor market: A tale of two curves," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    2. Michael Christl & Aron Kiss & Wolfgang Nagl, 2025. "The Effects of COVID-19 on Labour Market Matching in Austria: A Regional Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 708, WIFO.
    3. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2025. "Macroeconomic facts in the Japanese labor market: survey," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 621-666, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Figura & Christopher J. Waller, 2022. "What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?," FEDS Notes 2022-07-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2025. "Macroeconomic facts in the Japanese labor market: survey," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 76(3), pages 621-666, July.
    3. Forsythe, Eliza & Wu, Jhih-Chian, 2021. "Explaining Demographic Heterogeneity in Cyclical Unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    4. Domenico Ferraro, 2018. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 30, pages 145-162, October.
    5. Hie Joo Ahn & James Hamilton, 2022. "Measuring Labor-Force Participation and the Incidence and Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 44, pages 1-32, April.
    6. Yuelin Liu, 2022. "How structural is unemployment in the United States?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 60(3), pages 1258-1276, July.
    7. Kohlbrecher, Britta & Merkl, Christian, 2022. "Business cycle asymmetries and the labor market," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    8. Crawley, Andrew & Welch, Sarah & Yung, Julieta, 2021. "Improving estimates of job matching efficiency with different measures of unemployment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    9. Regis Barnichon & Adam Shapiro, 2024. "Phillips Meets Beveridge," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Simmons, Michael, 2023. "Job-to-job transitions, job finding and the ins of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Hie Joo Ahn & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2024. "(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-050r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 28 May 2025.
    12. Holmberg, Johan, 2021. "Earnings and Employment Dynamics: Capturing Cyclicality using Mixed Frequency Data," Umeå Economic Studies 991, Umeå University, Department of Economics.
    13. Shigeru Fujita, 2011. "Dynamics of worker flows and vacancies: evidence from the sign restriction approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 89-121, January/F.
    14. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Etienne Lalé, 2016. "The Rise of Part-time Employment," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers hal-01311976, HAL.
    15. Sengul, Gonul & Tasci, Murat, 2020. "Unemployment flows, participation, and the natural rate of unemployment: Evidence from turkey," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    16. Krause, Michael U. & Lopez-Salido, David J. & Lubik, Thomas A., 2008. "Do search frictions matter for inflation dynamics?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(8), pages 1464-1479, November.
    17. Adjemian, Stéphane & Karamé, Frédéric & Langot, François, 2021. "Nonlinearities and Workers’ Heterogeneity in Unemployment Dynamics," Dynare Working Papers 71, CEPREMAP.
    18. Idriss Fontaine, 2026. "An anatomy of labor market dynamics in the French Overseas Regions: a flow-based approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 75(1), pages 1-35, March.
    19. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    20. Thorleifsson, Oskar, 2021. "Unemployment Dynamics in the Nordics : Is there Heterogeneity in the Relative Importance of Ins and Outs?," Warwick-Monash Economics Student Papers 22, Warwick Monash Economics Student Papers.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:169:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001490. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.