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The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts

Author

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  • Gadi Barlevy
  • R. Jason Faberman
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Ayşegül Şahin

Abstract

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the US Beveridge curve has changed from 1959 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1959 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. Finally, we argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and job openings to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2024. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge Curve Shifts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 83-106, Spring.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:jecper:v:38:y:2024:i:2:p:83-106
    DOI: 10.1257/jep.38.2.83
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    Cited by:

    1. Ina Hajdini & Adam Hale Shapiro & Andrew Lee Smith & Daniel Villar Vallenas, 2025. "Inflation since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-070, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Fortin, Pierre, 2024. "Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?," CLEF Working Paper Series 70, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    3. Barnichon, Régis & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2024. "Phillips meets Beveridge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).
    4. Christopher L. Foote & Shigeru Fujita & Amanda M. Michaud & Joshua Montes, 2025. "Assessing Maximum Employment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2025-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Francesco Chiocchio & Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen Kopecky, 2025. "Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation," NBER Working Papers 33717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2024. "Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Taylor, Karl & Bhadury, Soumya & Binner, Jane & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2024. "Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 17153, IZA Network @ LISER.
    8. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    9. Michael Christl & Aron Kiss & Wolfgang Nagl, 2025. "The Effects of COVID-19 on Labour Market Matching in Austria: A Regional Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 708, WIFO.
    10. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised May 2024.
    11. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2025. "Has the Recession Started?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(6), pages 1047-1058, December.
    12. Taiyo Fukai & Keisuke Kawata & Mizuki Komura & Takahiro Toriyabe, 2025. "The wage-mismatch index: A new indicator of labor demand in the job search market," Discussion Paper Series 296, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    13. Figura, Andrew & Waller, Chris, 2024. "What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    14. Nuarpear Lekfuangfu & Nuttapol Lertmethaphat, 2025. "Building Thailand’s Beveridge Curve: New Insights of Thailand’s Labour Markets with Internet Job Platforms," PIER Discussion Papers 232, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs

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