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Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Chiocchio

    (CEMFI)

  • Jeremy Greenwood

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • Nezih Guner

    (CEMFI)

  • Karen Kopecky

Abstract

At the onset of COVID-19, U.S. labor-force participation fell by about 3 percentage points and remained below pre-pandemic levels three years later. Recovery was slower in states hit harder by the pre-pandemic opioid crisis, measured by age-adjusted overdose death rates. An event study shows that a one-standard-deviation increase in pre-COVID opioid deaths led to a 0.9 percentage point drop in post-COVID labor participation. This effect wasn't due to differences in overall health across states and was stronger among those without a college degree. In high-opioid states, slower recovery was linked to more people leaving the workforce due to disability.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Chiocchio & Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen Kopecky, 2025. "Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation," Working Papers 2025-007, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    • Handle: RePEc:hka:wpaper:2025-007
    Note: FI
    as

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    File URL: http://humcap.uchicago.edu/RePEc/hka/wpaper/Chiocchio_Greenwood_Guner_etal_2025_opiods-covid-labor-force.pdf
    File Function: First version, July 16, 2025
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    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J12 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Marriage; Marital Dissolution; Family Structure
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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