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Long COVID: The evolution of household welfare in developing countries during the pandemic

Author

Listed:
  • Brunckhorst, Ben
  • Cojocaru, Alexandru
  • Kim, Yeon Soo
  • Kugler, Maurice

Abstract

This study examines household welfare dynamics during the COVID-19 pandemic, using harmonized data from over 300 phone surveys in 80 countries during 2020 and 2021, representing more than 2.5 billion people. The analysis traces out the evolution of employment and income across and within countries as restrictions on economic activity were relaxed. We show some groups initially experiencing higher rates of employment loss – including women, informal workers, and those with less education – also recovered jobs at a slower pace. Based on panel regressions, changes in policy stringency were associated with unequal employment outcomes. Labor market transitions were toward jobs of inferior quality on average, especially for workers with less education. Household income dynamics suggest uneven impacts in the intensive margin of employment consistent with these transitions. Lower wages were not offset by additional social assistance. Taken together, these dynamics may amplify the inequality impacts of the pandemic over the medium to long term.

Suggested Citation

  • Brunckhorst, Ben & Cojocaru, Alexandru & Kim, Yeon Soo & Kugler, Maurice, 2024. "Long COVID: The evolution of household welfare in developing countries during the pandemic," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:175:y:2024:i:c:s0305750x23003030
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106485
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    Keywords

    COVID-19; Welfare; Inequality; Labor market; Phone surveys;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J16 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Gender; Non-labor Discrimination
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure

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