IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedhwp/97659.html

The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts

Author

Listed:
  • Gadi Barlevy
  • R. Jason Faberman
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Aysegul Sahin

Abstract

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. We argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2023. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts," Working Paper Series WP 2023-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97659
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2023-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.21033/wp-2023-38
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21033/wp-2023-38?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    3. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    4. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2010. "Labor Markets and Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 1-30, April.
    6. Olivier J Blanchard & Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space," Policy Briefs PB22-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Henry S. Farber & Robert G. Valletta, 2015. "Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells?: Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(4), pages 873-909.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2024. "Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Francesco Chiocchio & Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen Kopecky, 2025. "Opioids and Post-COVID Labor-Force Participation," NBER Working Papers 33717, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Ina Hajdini & Adam Hale Shapiro & Andrew Lee Smith & Daniel Villar Vallenas, 2025. "Inflation Since the Pandemic: Lessons and Challenges," Working Paper Series 2025-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    5. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2025. "Has the Recession Started?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(6), pages 1047-1058, December.
    6. Christopher L. Foote & Shigeru Fujita & Amanda M. Michaud & Joshua Montes, 2025. "Assessing Maximum Employment," Working Papers 25-26, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Fortin, Pierre, 2024. "Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?," CLEF Working Paper Series 70, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    8. Régis Barnichon & Adam Shapiro, 2024. "Phillips Meets Beveridge," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Michael Christl & Aron Kiss & Wolfgang Nagl, 2025. "The Effects of COVID-19 on Labour Market Matching in Austria: A Regional Perspective," WIFO Working Papers 708, WIFO.
    10. Taylor, Karl & Bhadury, Soumya & Binner, Jane & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2024. "Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 17153, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Taiyo Fukai & Keisuke Kawata & Mizuki Komura & Takahiro Toriyabe, 2025. "The wage-mismatch index: A new indicator of labor demand in the job search market," Discussion Paper Series 296, School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University.
    12. Figura, Andrew & Waller, Chris, 2024. "What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    13. Nuarpear Lekfuangfu & Nuttapol Lertmethaphat, 2025. "Building Thailand’s Beveridge Curve: New Insights of Thailand’s Labour Markets with Internet Job Platforms," PIER Discussion Papers 232, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    14. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised May 2024.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sylvain Leduc & Zheng Liu, 2016. "The slow job recovery in a macro model of search and recruiting intensity," Working Paper Series 2016-9, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Cardullo, Gabriele & Guerci, Eric, 2019. "Interpreting the Beveridge curve. An agent-based approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 84-100.
    3. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    4. Hie Joo Ahn & Jeremy B. Rudd, 2024. "(Re-)Connecting Inflation and the Labor Market: A Tale of Two Curves," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-050r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 28 May 2025.
    5. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Ring, Patrick, 2021. "Labor force participation, job search effort and unemployment insurance in the laboratory," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 748-778.
    6. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2015. "Aggregate Demand, Idle Time, and Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 130(2), pages 507-569.
    7. Gottfries, Nils & Stadin, Karolina, 2016. "The Matching Process:Search Or Mismatch?," Working Paper Series 2016:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    8. Andreas Hornstein & Marios Karabarbounis & Andre Kurmann & Etienne Lale & Lien Ta, 2023. "Disincentive Effects of Unemployment Insurance Benefits," Working Paper 23-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    9. Figura, Andrew & Waller, Chris, 2024. "What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    10. Albertini, Julien & Fairise, Xavier & Terriau, Anthony, 2023. "Unemployment insurance, recalls, and experience rating," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Andrés Álvarez, 2016. "La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 962, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Marc Giannoni & Aysegul Sahin, 2019. "A Unified Approach to Measuring u," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 143-238.
    13. Andreas I Mueller & Damian Osterwalder & Josef Zweimüller & Andreas Kettemann, 2024. "Vacancy Durations and Entry Wages: Evidence from Linked Vacancy–Employer–Employee Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(3), pages 1807-1841.
    14. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-54.
    15. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland D. Crane, 2020. "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Francesco Furlanetto & Nicolas Groshenny, 2012. "Matching efficiency and business cycle fluctuations," Working Paper 2012/07, Norges Bank.
    17. Barnichon, Regis, 2012. "Vacancy posting, job separation and unemployment fluctuations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 315-330.
    18. Anton Cheremukhin & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2022. "The Dual Beveridge Curve," Working Papers 2022-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Sep 2025.
    19. Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau & Etienne Wasmer, 2015. "Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Model of Goods, Labor and Credit Market Frictions," SciencePo Working papers hal-03392977, HAL.
    20. Klinger, Sabine & Weber, Enzo, 2014. "Decomposing Beveridge curve dynamics by correlated unobserved components: The impact of labour market reforms in Germany," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100499, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97659. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lauren Wiese (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbchus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.