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The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts

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Listed:
  • Gadi Barlevy
  • R. Jason Faberman
  • Bart Hobijn
  • Aysegul Sahin

Abstract

We discuss how the relative importance of factors that contribute to movements of the U.S. Beveridge curve has changed from 1960 to 2023. We review these factors in the context of a simple flow analogy used to capture the main insights of search and matching theories of the labor market. Changes in inflow rates, related to demographics, accounted for Beveridge curve shifts between 1960 and 2000. A reduction in matching efficiency, that depressed unemployment outflows, shifted the curve outwards in the wake of the Great Recession. In contrast, the most recent shifts in the Beveridge curve appear driven by changes in the eagerness of workers to switch jobs. We argue that, while the Beveridge curve is a useful tool for relating unemployment and vacancies to inflation, the link between these labor market indicators and inflation depends on whether and why the Beveridge curve shifted. Therefore, a careful examination of the factors underlying movements in the Beveridge curve is essential for drawing policy conclusions from the joint behavior of unemployment and job openings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2023. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts," Working Paper Series WP 2023-38, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:97659
    DOI: 10.21033/wp-2023-38
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    1. Henry S. Farber & Robert G. Valletta, 2015. "Do Extended Unemployment Benefits Lengthen Unemployment Spells?: Evidence from Recent Cycles in the U.S. Labor Market," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(4), pages 873-909.
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    3. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2012. "A Search and Matching Approach to Labor Markets: Did the Natural Rate of Unemployment Rise?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
    4. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
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    6. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    7. Olivier J Blanchard & Alex Domash & Lawrence H. Summers, 2022. "Bad news for the Fed from the Beveridge space," Policy Briefs PB22-7, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilenkisi, Fikret, 2024. "Uncertainty, labour force participation and job search," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Giannoni, Marc & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2024. "The unemployment–inflation trade-off revisited: The Phillips curve in COVID times," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(S).
    3. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2024. "Has the Recession Started?," Papers 2408.05856, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    4. Fortin, Pierre, 2024. "Does immigration help alleviate economy-wide labour shortages?," CLEF Working Paper Series 70, Canadian Labour Economics Forum (CLEF), University of Waterloo.
    5. Taylor, Karl & Bhadury, Soumya & Binner, Jane & Mandal, Anandadeep, 2024. "Business Cycle Turning Points and Local Labour Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 17153, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Figura, Andrew & Waller, Chris, 2024. "What does the beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of soft landings?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    7. Régis Barnichon & Adam Shapiro, 2024. "Phillips Meets Beveridge," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation in the COVID Era and Beyond, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Fabrice Collard & Patrick Feve & Alain Guay, 2024. "Risk Scenarios and Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 24-03, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management, revised May 2024.
    9. Barnichon, Régis & Shapiro, Adam Hale, 2024. "Phillips meets Beveridge," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 148(S).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beveridge curve; Inflation; Job openings; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J20 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - General
    • J6 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers

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