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Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting

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Abstract

We develop a dynamic decomposition of the empirical Beveridge curve, i.e., the level of vacancies conditional on unemployment. Using a standard model, we show that three factors can shift the Beveridge curve: reduced-form matching efficiency, changes in the job separation rate, and out-of-steady-state dynamics. We find that the shift in the Beveridge curve during and after the Great Recession was due to all three factors, and each factor taken separately had a large effect. Comparing the pre-2010 period to the post-2010 period, a fall in matching efficiency and out-of-steady-state dynamics both pushed the curve upward, while the changes in the separations rate pushed the curve downward. The net effect was the observed upward shift in vacancies given unemployment. In previous recessions changes in matching efficiency were relatively unimportant, while dynamics and the separations rate had more impact. Thus, the unusual feature of the Great Recession was the deterioration in matching efficiency, while separations and dynamics have played significant, partially offsetting roles in most downturns. The importance of these latter two margins contrasts with much of the literature, which abstracts from one or both of them. We show that these factors affect the slope of the empirical Beveridge curve, an important quantity in recent welfare analyses estimating the natural rate of unemployment.

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  • Hie Joo Ahn & Leland D. Crane, 2020. "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2020-27
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2020.027
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    1. Diamond, Peter A. & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "Shifts in the Beveridge curve," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 18-25.
    2. Kory Kroft & Fabian Lange & Matthew J. Notowidigdo & Lawrence F. Katz, 2016. "Long-Term Unemployment and the Great Recession: The Role of Composition, Duration Dependence, and Nonparticipation," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 7-54.
    3. Ay?egül ?ahin & Joseph Song & Giorgio Topa & Giovanni L. Violante, 2014. "Mismatch Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(11), pages 3529-3564, November.
    4. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    5. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2010. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    6. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn & Robert G. Valletta, 2011. "The recent evolution of the natural rate of unemployment," Working Paper Series 2011-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2000. "Equilibrium Unemployment Theory, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262161877, December.
    8. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    9. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    10. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2015. "Understanding the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 110-167, January.
    11. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2019. "Beveridgean Unemployment Gap," Papers 1911.05271, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2021.
    12. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
    13. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    14. Barnichon, Regis, 2010. "Building a composite Help-Wanted Index," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 175-178, December.
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    1. Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2020-05-11 13:40:36

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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Waller, 2022. "Responding to High Inflation, with Some Thoughts on a Soft Landing: a speech at the Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS) Distinguished Lecture, Goethe University Frankfurt, Germany, M," Speech 94280, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Anton A. Cheremukhin & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2022. "The Dual Beveridge Curve," Working Papers 2221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beveridge curve; Job separation; Job openings; Natural rate of unemployment; Matching efficiency; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General

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