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The Dual Beveridge Curve

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Abstract

The U.S. Beveridge curve’s recent outward shift has puzzled economists. We argue that the key stylized fact requiring a new framework is the divergence between surging vacancies and stable hires from unemployment. We propose a dual-vacancy model that attributes this divergence to a rising share of “poaching” vacancies targeted at employed workers. The model’s core identification reveals a disconnect: the data force a conclusion that poaching vacancies account for most vacancy fluctuations, yet have a surprisingly small impact on actual job-to-job hiring. This mechanism is validated by a new empirical fact: across sectors, vacancy rates converged post-2010 while hiring strategies diverged—a puzzle our framework uniquely resolves. Estimating the model, we find that the share of poaching vacancies rose significantly, driven by an increased incentive to poach. Adjusting the Beveridge curve for this composition shift restores its historical stability.

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  • Anton Cheremukhin & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2022. "The Dual Beveridge Curve," Working Papers 2022-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 29 Sep 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:94749
    DOI: 10.20955/wp.2022.021
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    1. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland D. Crane, 2020. "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Papers 2003.00033, arXiv.org.
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    3. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    4. Boele Bonthuis & Valerie Jarvis & Juuso Vanhala, 2016. "Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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