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The Dual Beveridge Curve

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Abstract

The recent behavior of the Beveridge Curve significantly differs from past recessions and is hard to explain with traditional gradual changes in fundamentals. We propose a novel dual vacancy model where we acknowledge that not all vacancies are made equal—when firms post a vacancy they can hire from unemployment or they can poach a worker from another firm. Our dual vacancy model segments the labor market into separate search processes for unemployed and employed workers and provides a better fit to the data than traditional models assuming a homogeneous market. By analyzing labor market data from 2000 onwards, we estimate the proportions of the two types of vacancies and find a significant rise in poaching vacancies since the mid-2010s. The behavior of the share of poaching vacancies is explained by the residual hires to quits ratio and by an increasing trend in the profit-cost ratio of these positions. Once we adjust the Beveridge Curve to only include vacancies for the unemployed, the recent puzzling behavior disappears. These results imply that a slowdown in the demand for overall workers is likely to have a diminished effect on unemployment, affecting the implications of monetary policy for unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton A. Cheremukhin & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2022. "The Dual Beveridge Curve," Working Papers 2221, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 22 Feb 2024.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:95137
    DOI: 10.24149/wp2221r1
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    1. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland D. Crane, 2020. "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Papers 2003.00033, arXiv.org.
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    3. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2013. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(2), pages 581-622.
    4. Boele Bonthuis & Valerie Jarvis & Juuso Vanhala, 2016. "Shifts in euro area Beveridge curves and their determinants," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 5(1), pages 1-17, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Beveridge curve; Vacancies; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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