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What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?

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Abstract

Any assessment of the likelihood and characteristics of a soft landing should take into account the situation in the labor market currently and the likely dynamics in the labor market going forward. Modern labor market models centered around the Beveridge curve are a useful tool in this assessment.

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  • Andrew Figura & Christopher J. Waller, 2022. "What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?," FEDS Notes 2022-07-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfn:2022-07-29
    DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3190
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    File URL: https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/what-does-the-beveridge-curve-tell-us-about-the-likelihood-of-a-soft-landing-20220729.htm
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    Cited by:

    1. Christopher J. Waller, 2023. "The Unstable Phillips Curve: a speech at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy, a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, March 31, 2023," Speech 95912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Guénette, Justin Damien & Sugawara, Naotaka, 2022. "Is a Global Recession Imminent?," CEPR Discussion Papers 17566, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    4. Lee, King Fuei, 2023. "Is Singapore’s Beveridge Curve Suffering From Long Covid Shifts?," MPRA Paper 117841, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati & Jose Mustre-del-Rio, 2022. "A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue August 10, pages 1-4, August.
    6. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics: Higher for Longer," Working Papers 23-06R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 20 Jun 2023.

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