IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedkeb/94772.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth

Author

Listed:
  • Huixin Bi
  • Chaitri Gulati
  • Jose Mustre-del-Rio

Abstract

Recently, some market observers have proposed that job vacancies could decline, and ease wage growth, without a commensurate increase in the unemployment rate. However, we find that the typical relationship of declining job vacancies and higher unemployment holds even at exceptionally low levels of the unemployment rate. A notable decline in job postings will likely coincide with an easing of tightness in the labor market, a higher unemployment rate, and slowing wage growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huixin Bi & Chaitri Gulati & Jose Mustre-del-Rio, 2022. "A Slowdown in Job Vacancies Is Likely to Coincide with Higher Unemployment and Slower Wage Growth," Economic Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue August 10, pages 1-4, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:94772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.kansascityfed.org/Economic%20Bulletin/documents/8958/EconomicBulletin22BiGulatiMustredelRio0810.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Figura & Christopher J. Waller, 2022. "What does the Beveridge curve tell us about the likelihood of a soft landing?," FEDS Notes 2022-07-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    3. Thomas A. Lubik, 2021. "Revisiting the Beveridge Curve: Why Has It Shifted so Dramatically?," Richmond Fed Economic Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 21(36), October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fedorets, Alexandra & Lottmann, Franziska & Stops, Michael, 2019. "Job matching in connected regional and occupational labour markets," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 53(8), pages 1085-1098.
    2. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    3. Gottfries, Nils & Stadin, Karolina, 2016. "The Matching Process:Search Or Mismatch?," Working Paper Series 2016:14, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    4. Peter Rodenburg, 2016. "How Full is Full Employment?How Tools and Not Theory Explained Full Employment," HISTORY OF ECONOMIC THOUGHT AND POLICY, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2016(2), pages 5-25.
    5. Bransch, Felix, 2021. "Job search intensity of unemployed workers and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    6. Andrés Álvarez, 2016. "La Curva de Beveridge en Colombia (1976-2014): Cambios cíclicos y estructurales," Borradores de Economia 962, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    7. Andreas Kettemann & Andreas I. Mueller & Josef Zweimüller, 2018. "Vacancy durations and entry wages: evidence from linked vacancy-employer-employee data," ECON - Working Papers 312, Department of Economics - University of Zurich.
    8. Gomme, Paul & Lkhagvasuren, Damba, 2015. "Worker search effort as an amplification mechanism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 106-122.
    9. Gadi Barlevy & R. Jason Faberman & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Shifting Reasons for Beveridge-Curve Shifts," NBER Working Papers 31783, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Hie Joo Ahn & Leland D. Crane, 2020. "Dynamic Beveridge Curve Accounting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-027, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Jason Anastasopoulos & George J. Borjas & Gavin G. Cook & Michael Lachanski, 2018. "Job Vacancies, the Beveridge Curve, and Supply Shocks: The Frequency and Content of Help-Wanted Ads in Pre- and Post-Mariel Miami," NBER Working Papers 24580, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Hie Joo Ahn & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2023. "The Dual U.S. Labor Market Uncovered," NBER Working Papers 31241, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Christopher J. Waller, 2023. "The Unstable Phillips Curve: a speech at the Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy, a conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, March 31, 2023," Speech 95912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Groiss, Martin & Sondermann, David, 2023. "Help wanted: the drivers and implications of labour shortages," Working Paper Series 2863, European Central Bank.
    15. Marco Fongoni, 2018. "Workers' reciprocity and the (ir)relevance of wage cyclicality for the volatility of job creation," Working Papers 1809, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    16. Jeong, Deokjae, 2022. "How the reduction of Temporary Foreign Workers led to a rise in vacancy rates in the South Korea," MPRA Paper 118731, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Dag Kolsrud, 2018. "Mismatch in the Norwegian Labour Market 2003–2013: Did Immigrants Make a Difference?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 137(3), pages 979-997, June.
    18. Anton A. Cheremukhin & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria, 2022. "The Dual Beveridge Curve," Working Papers 2022-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 13 Sep 2023.
    19. R. Jason Faberman & Andreas I. Mueller & Ayşegül Şahin & Giorgio Topa, 2022. "Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non‐Employed," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1743-1779, July.
    20. Simon Mongey & Giovanni L. Violante, 2019. "Macro Recruiting Intensity from Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 26231, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Jobs; Labor market; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J62 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Job, Occupational and Intergenerational Mobility; Promotion
    • J63 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Turnover; Vacancies; Layoffs
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedkeb:94772. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Zach Kastens (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbkcus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.