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COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock

Author

Listed:
  • Jose Maria Barrero
  • Nicholas Bloom
  • Steven J. Davis
  • Brent H. Meyer

Abstract

Drawing on data from the firm-level Survey of Business Uncertainty, we present three pieces of evidence that COVID-19 is a persistent reallocation shock. First, rates of excess job and sales reallocation over 24-month periods (looking back 12 months and ahead 12 months) have risen sharply since the pandemic struck, especially for sales. Second, as of December 2020, firm-level forecasts of sales revenue growth over the next year imply a continuation of recent changes, not a reversal. Third, COVID-19 shifted relative employment growth trends in favor of industries with a high capacity for employees to work from home.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose Maria Barrero & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Brent H. Meyer, 2021. "COVID-19 Is a Persistent Reallocation Shock," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 111, pages 287-291, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:111:y:2021:p:287-91
    DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20211110
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • D22 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Empirical Analysis
    • L25 - Industrial Organization - - Firm Objectives, Organization, and Behavior - - - Firm Performance
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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