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Purchasing power parity over two centuries: trends and nonlinearity

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  • D. A. Peel
  • I. A. Venetis

Abstract

In two recent contributions Lothian and Taylor, and Cuddington and Liang, produced empirical evidence that annual data for the dollar-sterling real exchange rate spanning two centuries exhibited a non-linear deterministic trend. This trend could be proxying Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effects. Lothian and Taylor showed that a linear stationary autoregressive mode, which embodied a cubic trend, implied much faster mean reversion of the real exchange rate to shocks than a model that excluded the trend. This article shows that both non-linearity and a deterministic trend can be allowed for in a theoretically appealing manner and that the fitted models provide a parsimonious explanation of both the dollar-sterling and franc-sterling real exchange rates over the two centuries of data. Generalized impulse response function analysis of the models demonstrates that the speed of adjustment to shocks can be even faster when trends are considered.

Suggested Citation

  • D. A. Peel & I. A. Venetis, 2003. "Purchasing power parity over two centuries: trends and nonlinearity," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(5), pages 609-617.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:35:y:2003:i:5:p:609-617
    DOI: 10.1080/0003684022000035773
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    2. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-121, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Nonlinear Ppp Under The Gold Standard," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-24, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    2. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Hsien Chen & Han-Wen Tzeng, 2017. "Revisiting purchasing power parity in Eastern European countries: quantile unit root tests," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 463-483, March.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu, 2015. "Purchasing Power Parity in Transition Countries: Panel Stationary Test with Smooth and Sharp Breaks," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 3(2), pages 1-9, May.
    4. David A. Peel & Ioannis A. Venetis, 2005. "Smooth Transition Models and Arbitrage Consistency," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 72(3), pages 413-430, August.
    5. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:1:p:11-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jyh-Lin Wu & Pei-Fen Chen & Ching-Nun Lee, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity, Productivity Differentials And Non-Linearity," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(3), pages 271-287, June.
    7. Soubarna Pal, 2011. "Productivity Differential and Bilateral Real Exchange Rate between India and US," Journal of Quantitative Economics, The Indian Econometric Society, vol. 9(1), pages 146-155.
    8. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ali Kutan & Su Zhou, 2009. "Towards solving the PPP puzzle: evidence from 113 countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(24), pages 3057-3066.
    9. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Price discovery in Taiwan's foreign exchange market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 77-93, February.
    10. Tastan Huseyin, 2005. "Do real exchange rates contain a unit root? Evidence from Turkish data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(17), pages 2037-2053.
    11. Katja Funke & Isabell Koske, 2008. "Does the Law of One Price Hold within the EU? A Panel Analysis," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(1), pages 11-24, February.
    12. Banu Kurtaran, 2015. "Re-examining the PPP Hypothesis via Nonlinearity and Smooth Breaks," Econometrics Letters, Bilimsel Mektuplar Organizasyonu (Scientific letters), vol. 2(1), pages 1-21.
    13. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Omid Ranjbar, 2016. "Quantile unit root test and PPP: evidence from 23 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(31), pages 2899-2911, July.
    14. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "A New Analysis Of The Determinants Of The Real Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-16, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
    15. Omay, Tolga & Hasanov, Mubariz & Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan, 2014. "Structural Break, Nonlinearity, and Asymmetry: A re-examination of PPP proposition," MPRA Paper 62335, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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