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Stock Returns and the Business Cycle

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  • Michael DeStefano

Abstract

This article examines whether movements in economic factors dictated by the dividend discount model can explain broad movements in stock returns over the business cycle. As anticipated, stock returns decrease throughout economic expansions and become negative during the first half of recessions. Returns are largest during the second half of recessions, suggesting an important role for expected earnings. These results are consistent with the notion that expected stock returns vary inversely with economic conditions, yet suggest that realized returns are especially poor indicators of expected returns prior to turning points in the business cycle. Copyright 2004 by the Eastern Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael DeStefano, 2004. "Stock Returns and the Business Cycle," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 39(4), pages 527-547, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:finrev:v:39:y:2004:i:4:p:527-547
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    Cited by:

    1. G├╝rtler, Marc & Heithecker, Dirk, 2005. "Systematic credit cycle risk of financial collaterals: Modelling and evidence," Working Papers FW15V2, Technische Universit├Ąt Braunschweig, Institute of Finance.
    2. Lichao Cheng & Yi Jin & Zhixiong Zeng, 2011. "Asset Prices, Monetary Policy, and Aggregate Fluctuations: An Empirical Investigation," Monash Economics Working Papers 13-11, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    3. repec:eco:journ1:2014-02-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Dirk Ulbricht, 2013. "Stock Investments for Old-Age: Less Return, More Risk, and Unexpected Timing," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1324, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Cox, Raymond A.K. & Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han & Nofsinger, John, 2017. "The Bad, the boom and the bust: Profit warnings over the business cycle," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 13-19.
    6. Cox, Raymond A.K. & Dayanandan, Ajit & Donker, Han, 2016. "The Ricochet Effect of Bad News," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 385-401.
    7. Kurov, Alexander, 2012. "What determines the stock market's reaction to monetary policy statements?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 175-187.
    8. Martens, Martin & van Oord, Arco, 2014. "Hedging the time-varying risk exposures of momentum returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 78-89.
    9. Cheng, Lichao & Jin, Yi, 2013. "Asset prices, monetary policy, and aggregate fluctuations: An empirical investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 24-27.
    10. Ferreira, Miguel A. & Gama, Paulo M., 2010. "Correlation dynamics of global industry portfolios," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 35-47, February.

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