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Is the convergence of business cycles a global or regional issue? The UK, US and Euroland

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  • Andrew Hughes Hallett
  • Christian Richter

    (Loughborough University, UK)

Abstract

The identification of an European business cycle has been inconclusive. Yet cyclical convergence is the key consideration for those countries that wish to be members of the currency union (e.g. UK). In general, countries will vary in the components and characteristics that make up their cycles at any moment, as well as in the state of their cycle at each moment. To take this into account, we show here how to decompose a business cycle in a time-frequency framework; so that its components vary in importance and cyclical characteristics over time. We show, the inconclusive convergence results obtained so far appear because countries have some cycles in common-but diverge at others. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Is the convergence of business cycles a global or regional issue? The UK, US and Euroland," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(3), pages 177-194.
  • Handle: RePEc:ijf:ijfiec:v:11:y:2006:i:3:p:177-194
    DOI: 10.1002/ijfe.291
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/ijfe.291
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Crowley, Patrick M., 2008. "One money, several cycles? : evaluation of European business cycles using model-based cluster analysis," Research Discussion Papers 3/2008, Bank of Finland.
    2. Italo Colantone & Rosario Crinò & Laura Ogliari, 2015. "The Hidden Cost of Globalization: Import Competition and Mental Distress," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1511, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    3. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross-Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    4. Crowley, Patrick M., 2010. "Long cycles in growth : explorations using new frequency domain techniques with US data," Research Discussion Papers 6/2010, Bank of Finland.
    5. Juergen Bierbaumer-Polly, 2012. "Regional and Sectoral Business Cycles - Key Features for the Austrian economy," EcoMod2012 4074, EcoMod.
    6. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Has there been any structural convergence in the transmission of European monetary policies?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 85-101, July.
    7. Maria do Rosario CORREIA & Christian GOKUS & Andrew Hughes HALLETT & Christian R. RICHTER, 2016. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Determinants of the Greek Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Economics and Political Economy, KSP Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 350-376, June.
    8. Maria do Rosario Correia & Reinhard Neck & Theodore Panagiotidis & Christian Richter, 2008. "An empirical investigation of the sustainability of the public deficit in Portugal," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 209-223, July.
    9. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization in Turkey," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(5), pages 581-606, December.
    10. Hasan Engin Duran, 2015. "Dynamics of Business Cycle Synchronization within Turkey," Working Papers 2015/01, Turkish Economic Association.
    11. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2008. "Have the Eurozone economies converged on a common European cycle?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 71-101, July.
    12. Andrew Hallett & Christian Richter, 2006. "Measuring the Degree of Convergence among European Business Cycles," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 27(2), pages 229-259, May.
    13. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Economics in the Backyard: How Much Convergence is there between China and her Special Regions?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(6), pages 819-861, June.
    14. Andrew Hughes Hallett & Christian Richter, 2009. "Is the US no longer the economy of first resort? Changing economic relationships in the Asia-Pacific region," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 207-234, July.

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