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Explaining the recent divergence in payroll and household employment growth


  • Chinhui Juhn
  • Simon M. Potter


Each month, the government releases two estimates of U.S. employment growth - one based on a survey of firms, the other on a survey of households. Since 1994, these measures have diverged sharply. Evidence suggests that the household survey's estimate has risen more slowly because it undercounts working-age adults who have found employment during the current economic expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Explaining the recent divergence in payroll and household employment growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Dec).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednci:y:1999:i:dec:n:v.5no.16

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Mark E. Schweitzer & Jennifer K. Ransom, 1999. "Measuring total employment: are a few million workers important?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Jun.
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    Cited by:

    1. Paul Ong & Matthew R. Graham, 2007. "Social, Economic, Spatial, and Commuting Patterns of Dual Jobholders," Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Technical Papers 2007-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    2. Kevin L. Kliesen, 2007. "How well does employment predict output?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 433-446.
    3. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
    4. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Katharine G. Abraham & John Haltiwanger & Kristin Sandusky & James R. Spletzer, 2013. "Exploring Differences in Employment between Household and Establishment Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(S1), pages 129-172.
    6. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter, 2006. "Changes in Labor Force Participation in the United States," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 27-46, Summer.
    7. Kitchen, John, 2003. "A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions," MPRA Paper 21070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Nicholas Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 1-23.

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    Employment (Economic theory);


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