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A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions

Author

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  • Kitchen, John

Abstract

This paper examines the relative reliability of alternative measures of employment around business cycle turning points, with particular focus on the behavior of the series at the critical business cycle phase of early expansion phase following a recession. Historical evidence shows that the initial “real time” changes in household employment have provided information for subsequent revisions to the estimates of changes in payroll employment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kitchen, John, 2003. "A Note on the Observed Downward Bias in Real-Time Estimates of Payroll Jobs Growth in Early Expansions," MPRA Paper 21070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21070
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/21070/1/MPRA_paper_21070.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1997. "What moves the bond market?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 31-50.
    2. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
    3. Kitchen, John, 2003. "Observed Relationships Between Economic and Technical Receipts Revisions in Federal Budget Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 56(2), pages 337-353, June.
    4. Balduzzi, Pierluigi & Elton, Edwin J. & Green, T. Clifton, 2001. "Economic News and Bond Prices: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 36(04), pages 523-543, December.
    5. Chinhui Juhn & Simon M. Potter, 1999. "Explaining the recent divergence in payroll and household employment growth," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 5(Dec).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
    2. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy Piger, 2013. "Employment And The Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 81, pages 16-42, October.
    3. Jeremy Smith, 2004. "Aggregate Labour Productivity Growth in Canada and the United States: Definitions, Trends and Measurement Issues," CSLS Research Reports 2004-04, Centre for the Study of Living Standards.
    4. Nicholas Haltom & Vanessa D. Mitchell & Ellis W. Tallman, 2005. "Payroll employment data: measuring the effects of annual benchmark revisions," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 2, pages 1-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    employment; payroll jobs; surveys;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

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