IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/gewi18/275844.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Estimating German Milk Supply Response Using A Global Vectorautoregressive Model

Author

Listed:
  • Hoehl, Stephan
  • Hess, Sebastian

Abstract

Agricultural supply reactions in response to output price changes remain far from being well understood. German milk supply response is studied using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model of milk output in the seven largest German states. Based on this model, the effect of a positive shock of one standard deviation on the farm gate milk price has been simulated. Results indicate that farms on average reacted with increased output. However, this effect was substantially more pronounced in the years 1961-1983 prior to introduction of the dairy quota than during the quota years (1984-2015). Both Northern and Southern German states showed similar short-term output reactions, while northern states exhibited more pronounced long-term output expansion effects than southern regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hoehl, Stephan & Hess, Sebastian, 2018. "Estimating German Milk Supply Response Using A Global Vectorautoregressive Model," 58th Annual Conference, Kiel, Germany, September 12-14, 2018 275844, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi18:275844
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.275844
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/275844/files/Vortrag_138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22004/ag.econ.275844?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Nerlove, 1956. "Estimates of the Elasticities of Supply of Selected Agricultural Commodities," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 38(2), pages 496-509.
    2. Boots, Maroeska & Oude Lansink, Alfons & Peerlings, Jack, 1997. "Efficiency Loss Due to Distortions in Dutch Milk Quota Trade," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 31-46.
    3. Colman, David R., 1983. "A Review of the Arts of Supply Response Analysis," Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 51(03), pages 1-30, December.
    4. Irina V. Bezlepkina & Alfons G. J. M. Oude Lansink & Arie J. Oskam, 2005. "Effects of subsidies in Russian dairy farming," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 33(3), pages 277-288, November.
    5. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Md Zabid Iqbal & Bruce A. Babcock, 2018. "Global growing‐area elasticities of key agricultural crops estimated using dynamic heterogeneous panel methods," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(6), pages 681-690, November.
    2. Santeramo, Fabio Gaetano, 2014. "On the estimation of supply and demand elasticities of agricultural commodites," AGRODEP technical notes TN-10, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    3. Amina Al Naabi & Shekar Bose, 2020. "Do Regulatory Measures Necessarily Affect Oman’s Seafood Export-Supply?," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(3), pages 21582440209, August.
    4. Anbes Tenaye, 2020. "New Evidence Using a Dynamic Panel Data Approach: Cereal Supply Response in Smallholder Agriculture in Ethiopia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-24, July.
    5. Jongeneel, Roel & Gonzalez-Martinez, Ana Rosa, 2022. "The role of market drivers in explaining the EU milk supply after the milk quota abolition," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 194-209.
    6. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Miklesh Yadav & Nandita Mishra & Shruti Ashok, 2023. "Dynamic connectedness of green bond with financial markets of European countries under OECD economies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 609-631, February.
    8. Hasan, Mudassar & Arif, Muhammad & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Ngo, Quang-Thanh & Taghizadeh–Hesary, Farhad, 2021. "Time-frequency connectedness between Asian electricity sectors," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 208-224.
    9. Bloch, Harry & Rafiq, Shuddhasattwa & Salim, Ruhul, 2015. "Economic growth with coal, oil and renewable energy consumption in China: Prospects for fuel substitution," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 104-115.
    10. Shi, Huai-Long & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Factor volatility spillover and its implications on factor premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    11. Bonciani, Dario, 2015. "Estimating the effects of uncertainty over the business cycle," MPRA Paper 65921, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. van Dijk, Dick & Hans Franses, Philip & Peter Boswijk, H., 2007. "Absorption of shocks in nonlinear autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(9), pages 4206-4226, May.
    13. Tomas Konecny & Oxana Babecka-Kucharcukova, 2016. "Credit Spreads and the Links between the Financial and Real Sectors in a Small Open Economy: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 66(4), pages 302-321, August.
    14. Raushan Bokusheva & Lukáš Čechura & Subal C. Kumbhakar, 2023. "Estimating persistent and transient technical efficiency and their determinants in the presence of heterogeneity and endogeneity," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 450-472, June.
    15. Tihana Škrinjarić, 2019. "Time Varying Spillovers between the Online Search Volume and Stock Returns: Case of CESEE Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-30, October.
    16. Anton Muscatelli & Patrizio Tirelli & Carmine Trecroci, 2001. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions over the Cycle: Some Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2002_13, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Oct 2002.
    17. Idriss Fontaine, 2021. "Uncertainty and Labour Force Participation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(2), pages 437-471, April.
    18. Ndayitwayeko, W-M. & Odhiambo, M.O. & Nyangweso, P.M. & Korir, M.K., 2012. "Determinants of Beef Meat Supply in Burundi: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach Applied to structural Nerlov Paradign," 2012 Eighth AFMA Congress, November 25-29, 2012, Nairobi, Kenya 159414, African Farm Management Association (AFMA).
    19. Claeys, Peter & Vašíček, Bořek, 2014. "Measuring bilateral spillover and testing contagion on sovereign bond markets in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 151-165.
    20. Victor Echevarria Icaza & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero, 2017. "Yields on sovereign debt, fragmentation and monetary policy transmission in the euro area: A GVAR approach," Working Papers 17-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
    21. Juncal Cunado & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta, 2021. "Realized Volatility Spillovers between Energy and Metal Markets: A Time-Varying Connectedness Approach," Working Papers 202180, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agribusiness; Demand and Price Analysis;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:gewi18:275844. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gewisea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.