IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v143y2025ics0140988325000738.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Energy transition metals, clean and dirty energy markets: A quantile-on-quantile risk transmission analysis of market dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Arfaoui, Nadia
  • Roubaud, David
  • Naeem, Muhammad A.

Abstract

Amidst the imperative to address environmental degradation and realize sustainable development, energy transition metals have emerged as focal points for practitioners and scholars. This study delves into the role of these energy metals and clean energy markets in advancing environmental sustainability against dirty energy markets. Employing quantile-on-quantile risk transmission, the research scrutinizes asymmetric trends, unveiling crucial insights. Intriguingly, while markets exhibit intra-class risk transmission, energy metals appear notably detached. Dynamic analysis unravels time-varying spillovers, accentuating heightened connectivity during pivotal events like the shale oil crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, and Russia-Ukraine conflict. Notably, time-varying net spillovers highlight diversification benefits in energy metals and clean energy markets, urging stakeholders—ranging from policymakers to investors—to consider integrating energy metals into mainstream assets for risk reduction. In essence, this study underscores the pivotal role of energy metals and clean energy markets in fostering environmental sustainability.

Suggested Citation

  • Arfaoui, Nadia & Roubaud, David & Naeem, Muhammad A., 2025. "Energy transition metals, clean and dirty energy markets: A quantile-on-quantile risk transmission analysis of market dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325000738
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108250
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325000738
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108250?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    2. Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel & Sinha, Avik & Murshed, Muntasir, 2023. "Russia-Ukraine conflict sentiments and energy market returns in G7 countries: Discovering the unexplored dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Yılmaz, Kamil, 2014. "On the network topology of variance decompositions: Measuring the connectedness of financial firms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 182(1), pages 119-134.
    4. Månberger, André & Stenqvist, Björn, 2018. "Global metal flows in the renewable energy transition: Exploring the effects of substitutes, technological mix and development," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 226-241.
    5. Hongxun Liu & Jianglong Li, 2018. "The US Shale Gas Revolution and Its Externality on Crude Oil Prices: A Counterfactual Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    6. Karkowska, Renata & Urjasz, Szczepan, 2023. "How does the Russian-Ukrainian war change connectedness and hedging opportunities? Comparison between dirty and clean energy markets versus global stock indices," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    7. Dutta, Anupam & Bouri, Elie & Saeed, Tareq & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "Impact of energy sector volatility on clean energy assets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    8. Gabauer, David & Stenfors, Alexis, 2024. "Quantile-on-quantile connectedness measures: Evidence from the US treasury yield curve," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    9. Wang, Mei-Chih & Chang, Tsangyao & Mikhaylov, Alexey & Linyu, Jia, 2024. "A measure of quantile-on-quantile connectedness for the US treasury yield curve spread, the US Dollar, and gold price," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    10. Liu, Xiaoyu & Zhao, Ti & Li, Ran, 2023. "Studying the green economic growth with clean energy and green finance: The role of financial policy," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).
    11. Wei, Yu & Wang, Yudong & Huang, Dengshi, 2010. "Forecasting crude oil market volatility: Further evidence using GARCH-class models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1477-1484, November.
    12. Nicholas Stern & Joseph Stiglitz & Charlotte Taylor, 2022. "The economics of immense risk, urgent action and radical change: towards new approaches to the economics of climate change," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 181-216, July.
    13. Martínez-García, Miguel Á. & Ramos-Carvajal, Carmen & Cámara, Ángeles, 2023. "Consequences of the energy measures derived from the war in Ukraine on the level of prices of EU countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    14. Tolliver, Clarence & Keeley, Alexander Ryota & Managi, Shunsuke, 2020. "Policy targets behind green bonds for renewable energy: Do climate commitments matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    15. Zhang, Hongwei & Zhang, Yubo & Gao, Wang & Li, Yingli, 2023. "Extreme quantile spillovers and drivers among clean energy, electricity and energy metals markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    16. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Arfaoui, Nadia, 2023. "Exploring downside risk dependence across energy markets: Electricity, conventional energy, carbon, and clean energy during episodes of market crises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    17. Douglas B. Reynolds & Maduabuchi Pascal Umekwe, 2019. "Shale-Oil Development Prospects: The Role of Shale-Gas in Developing Shale-Oil," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-21, August.
    18. Byun, Suk Joon & Cho, Hangjun, 2013. "Forecasting carbon futures volatility using GARCH models with energy volatilities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 207-221.
    19. Li, Mingkai & Widijatmoko, Samuel D. & Wang, Zheng & Hall, Philip, 2023. "A methodology to liberate critical metals in waste solar panel," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    20. Wei, Yu & Zhang, Jiahao & Bai, Lan & Wang, Yizhi, 2023. "Connectedness among El Niño-Southern Oscillation, carbon emission allowance, crude oil and renewable energy stock markets: Time- and frequency-domain evidence based on TVP-VAR model," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C), pages 289-309.
    21. Zhang, LiXia & Baloch, Zulfiqar Ali & Niu, Guangli, 2023. "Effects of COVID-19 on green bonds, renewable power stocks, and carbon markets: A dynamic spillover analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    22. Batten, Sandra, 2018. "Climate change and the macro-economy: a critical review," Bank of England working papers 706, Bank of England.
    23. Chen, Shengming & Bouteska, Ahmed & Sharif, Taimur & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "The Russia–Ukraine war and energy market volatility: A novel application of the volatility ratio in the context of natural gas," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PA).
    24. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    25. Tomohiro Ando & Matthew Greenwood-Nimmo & Yongcheol Shin, 2022. "Quantile Connectedness: Modeling Tail Behavior in the Topology of Financial Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(4), pages 2401-2431, April.
    26. Burke, Paul J. & Yang, Hewen, 2016. "The price and income elasticities of natural gas demand: International evidence," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 466-474.
    27. Nguyen, Thi Thu Ha & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Balli, Faruk & Balli, Hatice Ozer & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Time-frequency comovement among green bonds, stocks, commodities, clean energy, and conventional bonds," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    28. Darya Gribkova & Yulia Milshina, 2022. "Energy Transition as a Response to Energy Challenges in Post-Pandemic Reality," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, January.
    29. Lingyun Zhu & Ming Chen, 2020. "Development of a Two-Stage Pyrolysis Process for the End-Of-Life Nickel Cobalt Manganese Lithium Battery Recycling from Electric Vehicles," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(21), pages 1-14, November.
    30. Middleton, Richard S. & Gupta, Rajan & Hyman, Jeffrey D. & Viswanathan, Hari S., 2017. "The shale gas revolution: Barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C), pages 88-95.
    31. Wang, Peng & Chen, Li-Yang & Ge, Jian-Ping & Cai, Wenjia & Chen, Wei-Qiang, 2019. "Incorporating critical material cycles into metal-energy nexus of China’s 2050 renewable transition," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 253(C), pages 1-1.
    32. Umar, Muhammad & Farid, Saqib & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr, 2022. "Time-frequency connectedness among clean-energy stocks and fossil fuel markets: Comparison between financial, oil and pandemic crisis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    33. Zhang, Ling & Berk Saydaliev, Hayot & Ma, Xiaoyu, 2022. "Does green finance investment and technological innovation improve renewable energy efficiency and sustainable development goals," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 991-1000.
    34. Bazmi, Aqeel Ahmed & Zahedi, Gholamreza, 2011. "Sustainable energy systems: Role of optimization modeling techniques in power generation and supply—A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(8), pages 3480-3500.
    35. Tian, Jinfang & Yu, Longguang & Xue, Rui & Zhuang, Shan & Shan, Yuli, 2022. "Global low-carbon energy transition in the post-COVID-19 era," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 307(C).
    36. Arfaoui, Nadia & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Maherzi, Teja & Kayani, Umar Nawaz, 2024. "Can green investment funds hedge climate risk?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    37. Arzaghi, Mohammad & Squalli, Jay, 2015. "How price inelastic is demand for gasoline in fuel-subsidizing economies?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 117-124.
    38. Chang, Chia-Lin & McAleer, Michael & Wang, Yu-Ann, 2020. "Herding behaviour in energy stock markets during the Global Financial Crisis, SARS, and ongoing COVID-19," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    39. Liang, Chao & Umar, Muhammad & Ma, Feng & Huynh, Toan L.D., 2022. "Climate policy uncertainty and world renewable energy index volatility forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    40. Yuan, Xi & Qin, Meng & Zhong, Yifan & Nicoleta-Claudia, Moldovan, 2023. "Financial roles in green investment based on the quantile connectedness," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    41. Heffron, Raphael & Körner, Marc-Fabian & Wagner, Jonathan & Weibelzahl, Martin & Fridgen, Gilbert, 2020. "Industrial demand-side flexibility: A key element of a just energy transition and industrial development," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 269(C).
    42. He, Rui-fang & Zhong, Mei-rui & Huang, Jian-bai, 2021. "The dynamic effects of renewable-energy and fossil-fuel technological progress on metal consumption in the electric power industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    43. M. Karanasos & S. Yfanti & J. Hunter, 2022. "Emerging stock market volatility and economic fundamentals: the importance of US uncertainty spillovers, financial and health crises," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(2), pages 1077-1116, June.
    44. Irena Pyka & Aleksandra Nocoń, 2021. "Banks’ Capital Requirements in Terms of Implementation of the Concept of Sustainable Finance," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-17, March.
    45. Koop, Gary & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Potter, Simon M., 1996. "Impulse response analysis in nonlinear multivariate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 119-147, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Haq, Inzamam Ul & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Huo, Chunhui & Bakry, Walid, 2025. "Unveiling time-frequency linkages among diverse cryptocurrency classes and climate change concerns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Adeabah, David & Pham, Thu Phuong, 2025. "Asymmetric tail risk spillover and co-movement between climate risk and the international energy market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Wu, Ruirui & Li, Bin & Qin, Zhongfeng, 2024. "Spillovers and dependency between green finance and traditional energy markets under different market conditions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    3. Pham, Son Duy & Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2025. "Tail risk connectedness in the Australian National Electricity Markets: The impact of rare events," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Wu, Ruirui & Qin, Zhongfeng, 2024. "Asymmetric volatility spillovers among new energy, ESG, green bond and carbon markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
    5. Do, Hung Xuan & Nepal, Rabindra & Pham, Son Duy & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Electricity market crisis in Europe and cross border price effects: A quantile return connectedness analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    6. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    7. Zhang, Jiahao & Chen, Xiaodan & Wei, Yu & Bai, Lan, 2023. "Does the connectedness among fossil energy returns matter for renewable energy stock returns? Fresh insights from the Cross-Quantilogram analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    8. Alomari, Mohammed & Belghouthi, Houssem Eddine & Mensi, Walid & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2024. "Extreme time-frequency connectedness between energy sector markets and financial markets," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 847-877.
    9. Su, Xianfang & Zhao, Yachao, 2023. "What has the strongest connectedness with clean energy? Technology, substitutes, or raw materials," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Wang, Yiding & Zhao, Xiaojun & Shang, Junyan, 2025. "Dynamic risk spillover in green financial markets: A wavelet frequency analysis from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    11. He, Xie & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2024. "Asymmetric Higher-Moment spillovers between sustainable and traditional investments," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Mesut Doğan & Sutbayeva Raikhan & Nurbossynova Zhanar & Bodaukhan Gulbagda, 2023. "Analysis of Dynamic Connectedness Relationships among Clean Energy, Carbon Emission Allowance, and BIST Indexes," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-13, March.
    13. Yang, Yajie & Zhao, Longfeng & Chen, Lin & Wang, Chao & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2025. "The spillover effects between renewable energy tokens and energy assets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Gubareva, Mariya & Shafiullah, Muhammad & Teplova, Tamara, 2025. "Cross-quantile risk assessment: The interplay of crude oil, artificial intelligence, clean tech, and other markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    15. Abdullah, Mohammad & Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Wali Ullah, G M & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Khan, Isma, 2023. "Tail risk contagion across electricity markets in crisis periods," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    16. Xu, Danyang & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les & Lin, Boqiang & He, Yongda, 2025. "Exploring the connectedness between major volatility indexes and worldwide sustainable investments," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    17. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Aikins Abakah, Emmanuel Joel & Gabauer, David & Dwumfour, Richard Adjei, 2022. "Dynamic spillover effects among green bond, renewable energy stocks and carbon markets during COVID-19 pandemic: Implications for hedging and investments strategies," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    18. Lin, Boqiang & Zhang, Zongyou, 2025. "Extreme spillovers among green finance, energy, and energy metals markets in China: Evidence under the dilemma of energy transition," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    19. Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung X., 2024. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on return spillover among green assets and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Qiao, Sen & Chang, Yuan & Mai, Xi Xi & Dang, Yi Jing, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty, clean energy and energy metals: A quantile time-frequency spillover study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:143:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325000738. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.